Eerste Divisie
Jong AZHomeWLDWL
5:4Half-time 2:2
Helmond SportAwayLLLLW532225
Jong AZ winDrawHelmond Sport win
Jong AZHomeWLDWLHelmond SportAwayLLLLW- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.68 2.20 : 1.48
- Favourite
- 53% Jong AZ
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 69% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.82 | 3.90 | 3.65 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.38 | 2.81 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Jong AZ to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport prediction: Jong AZ 1.82 (1xBet), draw 3.90 (1xBet), Helmond Sport 3.65 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 92.6%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.35 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.74 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.38 (1xBet) and no 2.81 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
53%
Our prediction
Jong AZ to win
Double chanceJong AZ or Helmond Sport (no draw)
78% chance1.21
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
71% chance1.35
BTTSBoth teams to score
69% chance1.38
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
88% chance1.13fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
9% chance11.11fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Jong AZ, full-time Jong AZ
35% chance2.88fair
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport prediction
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport prediction, who wins and at what price
Jong AZ are a narrow favourite in the Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport prediction, rated 53% to win this Eerste Divisie match on Friday, 23 October 2026. Helmond Sport sit at 25% and the draw at 22%.
Expected goals are 2.20 for Jong AZ and 1.48 for Helmond Sport, a total of 3.68, which puts over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 69%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Jong AZ to win is the main selection, rated 53%. The best price in our comparison is 1.82 at 1xBet, which implies 55%, so the model sits 2 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Jong AZ or Helmond Sport (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 78% chance, priced 1.21.
Jong AZ average 2.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded across their last 5, Helmond Sport 2.2 and 3.2 across 5.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 88%, over 2.5 at 71%, over 3.5 at 50%; under 2.5 is 29% and under 3.5 is 50%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 71%, best priced 1.35 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 69%. Jong AZ score in 89% of simulations against a 11% clean sheet for Helmond Sport; Helmond Sport score in 77% while Jong AZ shut them out 23% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 69%.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, followed by 1-1 (8.2%) and 2-2 (6.7%).
With the top scoreline at 9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Jong AZ, full-time Jong AZ is the top combination at 35%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 81%.
Every market for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 53% / 22% / 25% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Jong AZ to win53%1.82
Draw22%3.90
Helmond Sport to win25%3.65
Jong AZ, draw no bet68%fair 1.47
Helmond Sport, draw no bet32%fair 3.13
Double chance
Jong AZ or draw75%1.24
Helmond Sport or draw47%1.89
Jong AZ or Helmond Sport (no draw)78%1.21
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals88%fair 1.13
Over 2.5 goals71%1.35
Over 3.5 goals50%fair 1.99
Over 4.5 goals31%fair 3.24
Under 1.5 goals12%fair 8.47
Under 2.5 goals29%2.74
Under 3.5 goals50%fair 2.01
BTTS
Both teams to score69%1.38
Not both teams to score31%2.81
Halves
First-half goal81%fair 1.24
Over 1.5 first-half goals49%fair 2.03
Second-half goal87%fair 1.15
Team goals
Jong AZ to score89%fair 1.12
Helmond Sport to score77%fair 1.30
Jong AZ clean sheet23%fair 4.39
Helmond Sport clean sheet11%fair 9.01
Jong AZ to win to nil21%fair 4.78
Helmond Sport to win to nil10%fair 9.80
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19%
1-18.2%
2-26.7%
3-16.6%
2-06.1%
1-26.1%
Half-time / full-time
Jong AZ / Jong AZ34.7%
Draw / Jong AZ15.4%
Helmond Sport / Helmond Sport14.9%
Draw / Draw10.1%
Draw / Helmond Sport8.4%
Questions about Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport
Who is favourite in Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
The model gives Jong AZ the best chance at 53%, with the draw at 22%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 71%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
The BTTS yes line is rated 69%. Jong AZ find the net in 89% of simulated matches and Helmond Sport in 77%.
What time does Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport starts at 18:00 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.