Liga MX
LeonHomeWDLWD
1:1Half-time 1:1
TolucaAwayLDDDD262549
Leon winDrawToluca win
LeonHomeWDLWDTolucaAwayLDDDD- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.35 1.38 : 1.97
- Favourite
- 50% Toluca
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 66% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Leon vs Toluca betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.73 | 3.70 | 1.85 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 2.58 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Toluca to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Leon vs Toluca are 3.73 for Leon at 1xBet, 3.70 for the draw at 1xBet and 1.85 for Toluca at 1xBet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 92.7%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.44 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.43 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.44 (1xBet) and no 2.58 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
50%
Our prediction
Toluca to win
Double chanceLeon or Toluca (no draw)
76% chance1.24
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
65% chance1.44
BTTSBoth teams to score
66% chance1.44
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
85% chance1.18fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance10.53fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Toluca, full-time Toluca
32% chance3.10fair
Leon v Toluca head to head
0Leon wins
0Draws
1Toluca wins
- 3 Sep 26Toluca2:0Leon
1 meeting since coverage began, 2 goals in total: Leon scored 0, Toluca scored 2.
Leon vs Toluca prediction
Leon vs Toluca prediction, who wins and at what price
Leon host Toluca on Saturday, 24 October 2026 in the Liga MX, and the model has Toluca at 50%, the draw at 25% and Leon at 26%: that is the Leon vs Toluca prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 1.38 for Leon and 1.97 for Toluca, a total of 3.35, which puts over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 66%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Toluca to win is the main selection, rated 50%. At 1.85 with 1xBet the market prices it at 54%, against 50% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Leon or Toluca (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 76% chance, priced 1.24.
Over the last 5 matches Leon stand at 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Toluca show 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats in 5.
Leon vs Toluca over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
On the goal lines Leon vs Toluca reads 85% for over 1.5, 65% for over 2.5 and 43% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 36%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 65%, best priced 1.44 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 66%: Leon find the net in 75% of simulated matches and Toluca in 86%. Leon keep a clean sheet 14% of the time and Toluca 25%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Leon vs Toluca: 1-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-1 (6.9%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.5% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Toluca, full-time Toluca leads at 32%. A goal before the break is rated 78%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Leon vs Toluca
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 26% / 25% / 50% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Leon to win26%3.73
Draw25%3.70
Toluca to win50%1.85
Leon, draw no bet34%fair 2.96
Toluca, draw no bet66%fair 1.51
Double chance
Leon or draw50%1.86
Toluca or draw75%1.23
Leon or Toluca (no draw)76%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals85%fair 1.18
Over 2.5 goals65%1.44
Over 3.5 goals43%fair 2.32
Over 4.5 goals25%fair 4.05
Under 1.5 goals15%fair 6.54
Under 2.5 goals36%2.43
Under 3.5 goals57%fair 1.76
BTTS
Both teams to score66%1.44
Not both teams to score34%2.58
Halves
First-half goal78%fair 1.28
Over 1.5 first-half goals45%fair 2.25
Second-half goal84%fair 1.19
Team goals
Leon to score75%fair 1.34
Toluca to score86%fair 1.16
Leon clean sheet14%fair 7.19
Toluca clean sheet25%fair 3.97
Leon to win to nil13%fair 7.81
Toluca to win to nil23%fair 4.33
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-19.5%
1-29.4%
0-16.9%
0-26.8%
2-16.6%
2-26.5%
Half-time / full-time
Toluca / Toluca32.3%
Leon / Leon15.6%
Draw / Toluca15.5%
Draw / Draw11.5%
Draw / Leon9.2%
Questions about Leon vs Toluca
Who will win Leon vs Toluca?
The model gives Toluca the best chance at 50%, with the draw at 25%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Leon vs Toluca?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.5%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 65%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Leon vs Toluca?
The BTTS yes line is rated 66%. Leon find the net in 75% of simulated matches and Toluca in 86%.
What time does Leon vs Toluca kick off?
Leon vs Toluca starts at 23:00 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.