Liga de Expansión MX
DurangoHomeWDWLW
Fri 6 Nov
Leones Negros UDGAwayWDLWW472627
Durango winDrawLeones Negros UDG win
DurangoHomeWDWLWLeones Negros UDGAwayWDLWW- Kick-off Fri 6 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.72 1.57 : 1.15
- Favourite
- 47% Durango
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Durango vs Leones Negros UDG
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BC.Game | 2.02 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.68 | 1.99 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Durango to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Durango vs Leones Negros UDG are 2.02 for Durango at BC.Game, 3.30 for the draw at BC.Game and 3.30 for Leones Negros UDG at BC.Game.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.8%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.86 (BC.Game) and under 2.5 1.86 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.68 (BC.Game) and no 1.99 (BC.Game).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
74%
Our prediction
Durango or Leones Negros UDG (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
51% chance1.86
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.68
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.32fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.40fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Durango, full-time Durango
29% chance3.50fair
First halfFirst-half goal
71% chance1.42fair
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG odds movement
Durango win2.02+0.17
Draw3.30-0.20
Leones Negros UDG win3.30-0.40
Over 2.5 goals1.86+0.13
Under 2.5 goals1.86-0.14
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 3 Nov, 23:45 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG prediction
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG prediction, who wins and at what price
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG prediction for the Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, 6 November 2026: the model makes Durango marginally ahead at 47%, with the draw at 26% and Leones Negros UDG at 27%.
Durango are expected to score 1.57 and Leones Negros UDG 1.15, so the total line is 2.72 goals; over 2.5 lands at 51% and BTTS at 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is durango or Leones Negros UDG (no draw) at 74%. At 1.25 with BC.Game the market prices it at 80%, against 74% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Durango vs Leones Negros UDG.
Form check: Durango have won 3 of their last 5 with 14 scored and 6 conceded, Leones Negros UDG 3 of 5 scoring 13 and conceding 7.
How many goals in Durango vs Leones Negros UDG? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 76%, over 2.5 at 51%, over 3.5 at 29%; under 2.5 is 49% and under 3.5 is 71%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 51%; BC.Game pay 1.86.
BTTS yes stands at 55%. Durango score in 79% of simulations against a 21% clean sheet for Leones Negros UDG; Leones Negros UDG score in 68% while Durango shut them out 32% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%, followed by 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.3%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Durango, full-time Durango is the top combination at 29%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 71%.
Every market for Durango vs Leones Negros UDG
The grid built from 1.57 and 1.15 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Durango to win47%2.02
Draw26%3.30
Leones Negros UDG to win27%3.30
Durango, draw no bet63%fair 1.58
Leones Negros UDG, draw no bet37%fair 2.71
Double chance
Durango or draw73%1.25
Leones Negros UDG or draw53%1.65
Durango or Leones Negros UDG (no draw)74%1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Over 2.5 goals51%1.86
Over 3.5 goals29%fair 3.45
Over 4.5 goals14%fair 7.14
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 4.08
Under 2.5 goals49%1.86
Under 3.5 goals71%fair 1.41
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.68
Not both teams to score45%1.99
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.42
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.89
Second-half goal78%fair 1.29
Team goals
Durango to score79%fair 1.26
Leones Negros UDG to score68%fair 1.46
Durango clean sheet32%fair 3.15
Leones Negros UDG clean sheet21%fair 4.81
Durango to win to nil29%fair 3.44
Leones Negros UDG to win to nil19%fair 5.24
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.9%
1-010.3%
2-19.3%
2-08.1%
0-17.6%
1-26.8%
Half-time / full-time
Durango / Durango28.6%
Draw / Durango15.9%
Leones Negros UDG / Leones Negros UDG15.8%
Draw / Draw15%
Draw / Leones Negros UDG10.3%
Questions about Durango vs Leones Negros UDG
Durango or Leones Negros UDG: which side does the model back?
The model gives Durango the best chance at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What scoreline is most likely in Durango vs Leones Negros UDG?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 51% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Durango vs Leones Negros UDG?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Durango find the net in 79% of simulated matches and Leones Negros UDG in 68%.
When is Durango vs Leones Negros UDG and where is the result shown?
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG starts at 03:05 UTC on Friday, 6 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.