Liga de Expansión MX
Leones Negros UDGHomeWDLWW
Sun 8 Nov
DurangoAwayWDWLW522325
Leones Negros UDG winDrawDurango win
Leones Negros UDGHomeWDLWWDurangoAwayWDWLW- Kick-off Sun 8 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.92 1.78 : 1.14
- Favourite
- 52% Leones Negros UDG
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 57% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Leones Negros UDG vs Durango
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
Bookmakers have not opened Leones Negros UDG vs Durango yet. The lines usually arrive within two days of kick-off, and the markets above show the fair price from the model until then.
52%
Our prediction
Leones Negros UDG to win
1.91fair
Double chanceLeones Negros UDG or Durango (no draw)
77% chance1.30fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
56% chance1.79fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
57% chance1.77fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
79% chance1.27fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.17fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Leones Negros UDG, full-time Leones Negros UDG
33% chance3.06fair
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango prediction
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango prediction and best bet
Leones Negros UDG are a narrow favourite in the Leones Negros UDG vs Durango prediction, rated 52% to win this Liga de Expansión MX match on Sunday, 8 November 2026. Durango sit at 24% and the draw at 23%.
Expected goals are 1.78 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.14 for Durango, a total of 2.92, which puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 57%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is leones Negros UDG to win at 52%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
For a safer line, leones Negros UDG or Durango (no draw) covers 77% of outcomes.
Leones Negros UDG average 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last 5, Durango 2.8 and 1.2 across 5.
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 79%, over 2.5 at 56%, over 3.5 at 34%; under 2.5 is 44% and under 3.5 is 67%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 56%.
Both teams to score is 57%: Leones Negros UDG find the net in 83% of simulated matches and Durango in 68%. Leones Negros UDG keep a clean sheet 32% of the time and Durango 17%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%, followed by 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (9.6%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Leones Negros UDG, full-time Leones Negros UDG is the top combination at 33%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 73%.
Every market rated for Leones Negros UDG vs Durango
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Leones Negros UDG vs Durango, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Leones Negros UDG to win52%fair 1.91
Draw23%fair 4.29
Durango to win24%fair 4.12
Leones Negros UDG, draw no bet68%fair 1.46
Durango, draw no bet32%fair 3.15
Double chance
Leones Negros UDG or draw76%fair 1.32
Durango or draw48%fair 2.10
Leones Negros UDG or Durango (no draw)77%fair 1.30
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals79%fair 1.27
Over 2.5 goals56%fair 1.79
Over 3.5 goals34%fair 2.99
Over 4.5 goals17%fair 5.85
Under 1.5 goals21%fair 4.74
Under 2.5 goals44%fair 2.27
Under 3.5 goals67%fair 1.50
BTTS
Both teams to score57%fair 1.77
Not both teams to score43%fair 2.30
Halves
First-half goal73%fair 1.37
Over 1.5 first-half goals38%fair 2.65
Second-half goal80%fair 1.25
Team goals
Leones Negros UDG to score83%fair 1.20
Durango to score68%fair 1.47
Leones Negros UDG clean sheet32%fair 3.13
Durango clean sheet17%fair 5.92
Leones Negros UDG to win to nil29%fair 3.40
Durango to win to nil16%fair 6.45
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.9%
2-19.7%
1-09.6%
2-08.5%
1-26.2%
0-16.1%
Half-time / full-time
Leones Negros UDG / Leones Negros UDG32.7%
Draw / Leones Negros UDG16.7%
Durango / Durango13.7%
Draw / Draw13.5%
Draw / Durango8.9%
Questions about Leones Negros UDG vs Durango
Leones Negros UDG or Durango: which side does the model back?
The model gives Leones Negros UDG the best chance at 52%, with the draw at 23%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Leones Negros UDG vs Durango?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 56%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Leones Negros UDG vs Durango?
The BTTS yes line is rated 57%. Leones Negros UDG find the net in 83% of simulated matches and Durango in 68%.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Durango and where is the result shown?
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango starts at 18:00 UTC on Sunday, 8 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.