CancúnHomeWDDWW
PiratasAwayWLWWD
CancúnHomeWDDWW
PiratasAwayWLWWD| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.67 | 3.26 | 2.47 | 1.87 | 1.86 | 1.67 | 2.08 | Bet | |
| 2.88 | 3.00 | 2.38 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 1.80 | 1.84 | Bet | |
| 2.95 | 3.08 | 2.41 | 2.12 | 1.66 | 1.83 | 1.87 | Bet | |
| 2.95 | 3.08 | 2.41 | 2.12 | 1.66 | 1.83 | 1.87 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Melbet pay the best Cancún price at 2.95, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.26 and 1xBet have Piratas longest at 2.47.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 95.2%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.12 (Melbet) and under 2.5 1.86 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.83 (Betwinner) and no 2.08 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
Our prediction
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 3 Nov, 03:43 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
The Cancún vs Piratas prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, 6 November 2026 gives Cancún a 36% chance, Piratas 37% and the draw 27%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.
The goal expectancy is 2.73 in total, split 1.35 to Cancún and 1.38 to Piratas. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 51% and both teams to score 56%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Cancún or Piratas (no draw) is the main selection, rated 73%. At 1.33 with Melbet the market prices it at 75%, against 73% from the model.
Cancún average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across their last 5, Piratas 3.0 and 1.0 across 5.
Under 2.5 goals is rated 49% and under 3.5 71%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 76% and over 2.5 at 51%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 51%, best priced 2.12 at Melbet.
Both teams to score is 56%: Cancún find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Piratas in 75%. Cancún keep a clean sheet 25% of the time and Piratas 26%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.2%, then 0-1 at 9% and 1-0 at 8.8%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Piratas, full-time Piratas is the top combination at 22%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 71%.
The grid built from 1.35 and 1.38 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Double chance
Goals
BTTS
Halves
Team goals
Odd or even
Most likely scores
Half-time / full-time
The model gives Piratas the best chance at 37%, with the draw at 27%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 51%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
The BTTS yes line is rated 56%. Cancún find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Piratas in 75%.
Kick-off is 01:00 UTC on Friday, 6 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.