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UTC
Liga de Expansión MX Quarter-finals Friday, 6 November 2026 Kick-off
CancúnHomeWDDWW
Fri 6 Nov
PiratasAwayWLWWD
362737
Cancún winDrawPiratas win
Kick-off
Fri 6 Nov
Expected goals
2.73
1.35 : 1.38
Favourite
37%
Piratas
Over 2.5 goals
51%
model chance
Both teams to score
56%
model chance
Prices compared
4
in the odds table

Best odds for Cancún vs Piratas

Bookmaker1X2Over 2.5Under 2.5BTTS yesBTTS no
1xBet2.673.262.471.871.861.672.08Bet
BC.Game2.883.002.382.101.681.801.84Bet
Betwinner2.953.082.412.121.661.831.87Bet
Melbet2.953.082.412.121.661.831.87Bet

Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.

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Piratas to win partner prices

Melbet pay the best Cancún price at 2.95, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.26 and 1xBet have Piratas longest at 2.47.

Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 95.2%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.

On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.12 (Melbet) and under 2.5 1.86 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.83 (Betwinner) and no 2.08 (1xBet).

The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.

73%

Our prediction

Cancún or Piratas (no draw)
LeanExpected goals 1.35 : 1.38-3% against the best price
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
51% chance2.12
BTTSBoth teams to score
56% chance1.83
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.32fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.20fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Piratas, full-time Piratas
22% chance4.48fair
First halfFirst-half goal
71% chance1.41fair

Cancún vs Piratas odds movement

Cancún win2.95+0.33
Draw3.26-0.02
Piratas win2.47+0.09
Over 2.5 goals2.12+0.28
Under 2.5 goals1.86+0.03

Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 3 Nov, 03:43 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.

Cancún vs Piratas prediction

Cancún vs Piratas prediction, who wins and at what price

The Cancún vs Piratas prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, 6 November 2026 gives Cancún a 36% chance, Piratas 37% and the draw 27%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.

The goal expectancy is 2.73 in total, split 1.35 to Cancún and 1.38 to Piratas. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 51% and both teams to score 56%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Cancún or Piratas (no draw) is the main selection, rated 73%. At 1.33 with Melbet the market prices it at 75%, against 73% from the model.

Cancún average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across their last 5, Piratas 3.0 and 1.0 across 5.

Cancún vs Piratas goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

Under 2.5 goals is rated 49% and under 3.5 71%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 76% and over 2.5 at 51%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 51%, best priced 2.12 at Melbet.

Both teams to score is 56%: Cancún find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Piratas in 75%. Cancún keep a clean sheet 25% of the time and Piratas 26%.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.2%, then 0-1 at 9% and 1-0 at 8.8%.

Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Piratas, full-time Piratas is the top combination at 22%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 71%.

Every market rated for Cancún vs Piratas

The grid built from 1.35 and 1.38 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.

Match result

Cancún to win36%2.95
Draw27%3.26
Piratas to win37%2.47
Cancún, draw no bet49%fair 2.04
Piratas, draw no bet51%fair 1.96

Double chance

Cancún or draw63%1.51
Piratas or draw64%1.41
Cancún or Piratas (no draw)73%1.33

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Over 2.5 goals51%2.12
Over 3.5 goals29%fair 3.41
Over 4.5 goals14%fair 7.04
Under 1.5 goals24%fair 4.12
Under 2.5 goals49%1.86
Under 3.5 goals71%fair 1.41

BTTS

Both teams to score56%1.83
Not both teams to score44%2.08

Halves

First-half goal71%fair 1.41
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.87
Second-half goal78%fair 1.29

Team goals

Cancún to score74%fair 1.35
Piratas to score75%fair 1.34
Cancún clean sheet25%fair 3.97
Piratas clean sheet26%fair 3.86
Cancún to win to nil23%fair 4.33
Piratas to win to nil24%fair 4.18

Odd or even

Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
0-19%
1-08.8%
1-28.4%
2-18.2%
0-06.5%

Half-time / full-time

Piratas / Piratas22.3%
Cancún / Cancún21.4%
Draw / Draw15.2%
Draw / Piratas13.3%
Draw / Cancún12.9%

Questions about Cancún vs Piratas

Who is favourite in Cancún vs Piratas?

The model gives Piratas the best chance at 37%, with the draw at 27%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.

What scoreline is most likely in Cancún vs Piratas?

1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 51%) are the steadier way to back the same view.

Cancún vs Piratas both teams to score: yes or no?

The BTTS yes line is rated 56%. Cancún find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Piratas in 75%.

When do Cancún play Piratas?

Kick-off is 01:00 UTC on Friday, 6 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.

Our pick, Cancún v PiratasCancún or Piratas (no draw), 73%
1.33Bet