Ligue 3
RouenHomeWLWLW
Sat 7 Nov
BastiaAwayLDDW552520
Rouen winDrawBastia win
RouenHomeWLWLWBastiaAwayLDDW- Kick-off Sat 7 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.57 1.67 : 0.90
- Favourite
- 55% Rouen
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 49% model chance
- Prices compared
- 3 in the odds table
Rouen vs Bastia betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 22Bet | 1.72 | 3.48 | 4.24 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.83 | 1.86 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.72 | 3.48 | 4.24 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.83 | 1.86 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.72 | 3.48 | 4.24 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.83 | 1.86 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Rouen to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Rouen vs Bastia are 1.72 for Rouen at 22Bet, 3.48 for the draw at 22Bet and 4.24 for Bastia at 22Bet.
The best-price payout across the three results is 90.5%, several points better than any single book offers here.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.92 (22Bet) and under 2.5 1.76 (22Bet); both teams to score yes pays 1.83 (22Bet) and no 1.86 (22Bet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
55%
Our prediction
Rouen to win
Double chanceRouen or draw
80% chance1.15
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
53% chance1.76
BTTSNot both teams to score
51% chance1.86
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
73% chance1.38fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
13% chance7.81fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Rouen, full-time Rouen
35% chance2.90fair
Rouen vs Bastia prediction
Our Rouen vs Bastia prediction and pick
Rouen are a narrow favourite in the Rouen vs Bastia prediction, rated 55% to win this Ligue 3 match on Saturday, 7 November 2026. Bastia sit at 20% and the draw at 25%.
Expected goals are 1.67 for Rouen and 0.90 for Bastia, a total of 2.57, which puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 49%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is rouen to win at 55%. The best price in our comparison is 1.72 at 22Bet, which implies 58%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Rouen or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 80% chance, priced 1.15.
Over the last 5 matches Rouen stand at 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Bastia show 1 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in 4.
Rouen vs Bastia goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 73%, over 2.5 at 47%, over 3.5 at 26%; under 2.5 is 53% and under 3.5 is 74%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 53%; 22Bet pay 1.76.
Both teams to score is 49%: Rouen find the net in 81% of simulated matches and Bastia in 59%. Rouen keep a clean sheet 41% of the time and Bastia 19%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Rouen vs Bastia: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.5%) and 2-0 (10.7%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.8% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Rouen, full-time Rouen is the top combination at 35%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 69%.
All markets, Rouen vs Bastia
The grid built from 1.67 and 0.90 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Rouen to win55%1.72
Draw25%3.48
Bastia to win20%4.24
Rouen, draw no bet74%fair 1.36
Bastia, draw no bet26%fair 3.80
Double chance
Rouen or draw80%1.15
Bastia or draw45%1.91
Rouen or Bastia (no draw)75%1.22
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.08
Over 1.5 goals73%fair 1.38
Over 2.5 goals47%1.92
Over 3.5 goals26%fair 3.89
Over 4.5 goals12%fair 8.47
Under 1.5 goals27%fair 3.66
Under 2.5 goals53%1.76
Under 3.5 goals74%fair 1.35
BTTS
Both teams to score49%1.83
Not both teams to score51%1.86
Halves
First-half goal69%fair 1.46
Over 1.5 first-half goals32%fair 3.11
Second-half goal76%fair 1.32
Team goals
Rouen to score81%fair 1.23
Bastia to score59%fair 1.69
Rouen clean sheet41%fair 2.46
Bastia clean sheet19%fair 5.32
Rouen to win to nil37%fair 2.67
Bastia to win to nil17%fair 5.78
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-012.8%
1-111.5%
2-010.7%
2-19.6%
0-07.7%
0-16.9%
Half-time / full-time
Rouen / Rouen34.5%
Draw / Rouen18.5%
Draw / Draw15.3%
Bastia / Bastia11%
Draw / Bastia8%
Questions about Rouen vs Bastia
Rouen or Bastia: which side does the model back?
The model gives Rouen the best chance at 55%, with the draw at 25%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Rouen vs Bastia?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 47%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Rouen vs Bastia?
The BTTS yes line is rated 49%. Rouen find the net in 81% of simulated matches and Bastia in 59%.
When do Rouen play Bastia?
Kick-off is 13:45 UTC on Saturday, 7 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.