Ligue 2
MetzHomeDLWDL
1:3Half-time 0:1
PAUAwayWWWWW482527
Metz winDrawPAU win
MetzHomeDLWDLPAUAwayWWWWW- Kick-off Fri 30 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.74 1.60 : 1.14
- Favourite
- 48% Metz
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 54% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Metz vs PAU betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.48 | 3.50 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.71 | 2.02 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.18 | 3.12 | 3.43 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.82 | 1.93 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.08 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.74 | 1.80 | 1.90 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.18 | 3.12 | 3.43 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.82 | 1.93 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.18 | 3.12 | 3.43 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.82 | 1.93 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Metz to win partner prices
22Bet pay the best Metz price at 2.18, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.48 and 1xBet have PAU longest at 3.50.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 97%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.11 (Melbet) and under 2.5 1.87 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.82 (22Bet) and no 2.02 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
75%
Our prediction
Metz or PAU (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
52% chance2.11
BTTSBoth teams to score
54% chance1.82
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.32fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.47fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Metz, full-time Metz
29% chance3.41fair
First halfFirst-half goal
71% chance1.41fair
Metz vs PAU prediction
Metz vs PAU prediction and best bet
Metz host PAU on Friday, 30 October 2026 in the Ligue 2, and the model has Metz at 48%, the draw at 25% and PAU at 27%: that is the Metz vs PAU prediction in one line.
The goal expectancy is 2.74 in total, split 1.60 to Metz and 1.14 to PAU. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 52% and both teams to score 54%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Metz vs PAU is metz or PAU (no draw), a 75% chance. At 1.33 with Melbet the market prices it at 75%, against 75% from the model.
Metz average 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded across their last 5, PAU 2.4 and 1.0 across 5.
How many goals in Metz vs PAU? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 76%, over 2.5 at 52%, over 3.5 at 30%; under 2.5 is 48% and under 3.5 is 71%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 52%, best priced 2.11 at Melbet.
BTTS yes stands at 54%. Metz score in 80% of simulations against a 20% clean sheet for PAU; PAU score in 68% while Metz shut them out 32% of the time.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Metz vs PAU: 1-1 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.8% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Metz, full-time Metz is the top combination at 29%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 71%.
All markets, Metz vs PAU
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 48% / 25% / 27% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Metz to win48%2.18
Draw25%3.48
PAU to win27%3.50
Metz, draw no bet64%fair 1.57
PAU, draw no bet36%fair 2.76
Double chance
Metz or draw73%1.28
PAU or draw52%1.74
Metz or PAU (no draw)75%1.33
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Over 2.5 goals52%2.11
Over 3.5 goals30%fair 3.39
Over 4.5 goals14%fair 6.99
Under 1.5 goals24%fair 4.13
Under 2.5 goals48%1.87
Under 3.5 goals71%fair 1.42
BTTS
Both teams to score54%1.82
Not both teams to score46%2.02
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.41
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.87
Second-half goal78%fair 1.29
Team goals
Metz to score80%fair 1.25
PAU to score68%fair 1.47
Metz clean sheet32%fair 3.13
PAU clean sheet20%fair 4.95
Metz to win to nil29%fair 3.40
PAU to win to nil19%fair 5.38
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.8%
1-010.3%
2-19.4%
2-08.3%
0-17.4%
1-26.7%
Half-time / full-time
Metz / Metz29.3%
Draw / Metz16.1%
PAU / PAU15.4%
Draw / Draw14.8%
Draw / PAU10%
Questions about Metz vs PAU
Metz or PAU: which side does the model back?
The model gives Metz the best chance at 48%, with the draw at 25%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Metz vs PAU correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 52%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Metz vs PAU?
The BTTS yes line is rated 54%. Metz find the net in 80% of simulated matches and PAU in 68%.
What time does Metz vs PAU kick off?
Kick-off is 19:00 UTC on Friday, 30 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.