Ligue 2
GuingampHomeLLLWW
1:2Half-time 0:2
PAUAwayWWWWW432829
Guingamp winDrawPAU win
GuingampHomeLLLWWPAUAwayWWWWW- Kick-off Fri 16 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.77 1.52 : 1.25
- Favourite
- 43% Guingamp
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 57% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Guingamp vs PAU betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.48 | 3.14 | 1.81 | 1.93 | 1.65 | 2.11 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Guingamp to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Guingamp price at 2.15, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.48 and 1xBet have PAU longest at 3.14.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 93.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.81 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.93 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.65 (1xBet) and no 2.11 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
72%
Our prediction
Guingamp or PAU (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
52% chance1.81
BTTSBoth teams to score
57% chance1.65
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.31fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.40fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Guingamp, full-time Guingamp
26% chance3.82fair
First halfFirst-half goal
71% chance1.40fair
Guingamp vs PAU prediction
Guingamp vs PAU prediction, who wins and at what price
Guingamp are marginally ahead in the Guingamp vs PAU prediction, rated 43% to win this Ligue 2 match on Friday, 16 October 2026. PAU sit at 30% and the draw at 28%.
Expected goals are 1.52 for Guingamp and 1.25 for PAU, a total of 2.77, which puts over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 57%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is guingamp or PAU (no draw) at 72%. At 1.28 with 1xBet the market prices it at 78%, against 72% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 5 matches Guingamp stand at 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; PAU show 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Guingamp vs PAU
On the goal lines Guingamp vs PAU reads 76% for over 1.5, 52% for over 2.5 and 30% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 48%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 52%, best priced 1.81 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 57%. Guingamp score in 78% of simulations against a 22% clean sheet for PAU; PAU score in 71% while Guingamp shut them out 29% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%, followed by 1-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Guingamp, full-time Guingamp leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 71%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Guingamp vs PAU
The grid built from 1.52 and 1.25 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Guingamp to win43%2.15
Draw28%3.48
PAU to win30%3.14
Guingamp, draw no bet59%fair 1.70
PAU, draw no bet41%fair 2.43
Double chance
Guingamp or draw70%1.33
PAU or draw58%1.65
Guingamp or PAU (no draw)72%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.31
Over 2.5 goals52%1.81
Over 3.5 goals30%fair 3.32
Over 4.5 goals15%fair 6.76
Under 1.5 goals24%fair 4.24
Under 2.5 goals48%1.93
Under 3.5 goals70%fair 1.43
BTTS
Both teams to score57%1.65
Not both teams to score43%2.11
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.40
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.82
Second-half goal78%fair 1.28
Team goals
Guingamp to score78%fair 1.28
PAU to score71%fair 1.40
Guingamp clean sheet29%fair 3.48
PAU clean sheet22%fair 4.57
Guingamp to win to nil26%fair 3.79
PAU to win to nil20%fair 4.98
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.9%
1-09.5%
2-19%
0-17.8%
1-27.4%
2-07.2%
Half-time / full-time
Guingamp / Guingamp26.2%
PAU / PAU18%
Draw / Draw14.8%
Draw / Guingamp14.8%
Draw / PAU11.3%
Questions about Guingamp vs PAU
Guingamp or PAU: which side does the model back?
The model gives Guingamp the best chance at 43%, with the draw at 28%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Guingamp vs PAU?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 52%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Guingamp vs PAU?
The BTTS yes line is rated 57%. Guingamp find the net in 78% of simulated matches and PAU in 71%.
What time does Guingamp vs PAU kick off?
Kick-off is 18:00 UTC on Friday, 16 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.