Champions League
Matchday 4 Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Kick-off
VillarrealHomeDLWWL
Tue 3 Nov
Paris Saint GermainAwayWWWWW212059
Villarreal winDrawParis Saint Germain win
Champions League
Matchday 4 Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Kick-off
VillarrealHomeDLWWLParis Saint GermainAwayWWWWW- Kick-off Tue 3 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.81 1.40 : 2.41
- Favourite
- 59% Paris Saint Germain
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 69% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 4.98 | 4.77 | 1.65 | 1.36 | 3.13 | 1.40 | 2.77 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 4.90 | 4.60 | 1.57 | 1.33 | 3.20 | 1.39 | 2.80 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 4.98 | 4.83 | 1.65 | 1.36 | 3.13 | 1.40 | 2.77 | Bet |
 Melbet | 4.98 | 4.83 | 1.65 | 1.36 | 3.16 | 1.40 | 2.77 | Bet |
 Stake | 4.80 | 4.70 | 1.53 | - | - | 1.42 | 2.60 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Paris Saint Germain to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction: Villarreal 4.98 (Betwinner), draw 4.83 (Betwinner), Paris Saint Germain 1.65 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 98.6%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.36 (Betwinner) and under 2.5 3.20 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.42 (Stake) and no 2.80 (BC.Game).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
59%
Our prediction
Paris Saint Germain to win
Double chanceVillarreal or Paris Saint Germain (no draw)
80% chance1.24
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
73% chance1.36
BTTSBoth teams to score
69% chance1.42
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
89% chance1.12fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
9% chance11.11fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Paris Saint Germain, full-time Paris Saint Germain
39% chance2.54fair
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain odds movement
Villarreal win4.98unchanged
Draw4.83+0.06
Paris Saint Germain win1.65unchanged
Over 2.5 goals1.36unchanged
Under 2.5 goals3.20unchanged
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 2 Nov, 06:34 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction, who wins and at what price
Villarreal host Paris Saint Germain on Tuesday, 3 November 2026 in the Champions League, and the model has Paris Saint Germain at 59%, the draw at 20% and Villarreal at 21%: that is the Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction in one line.
The goal expectancy is 3.81 in total, split 1.40 to Villarreal and 2.41 to Paris Saint Germain. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 73% and both teams to score 69%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is paris Saint Germain to win at 59%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.65. That price implies 61%, 2 points over the model figure.
For a safer line, villarreal or Paris Saint Germain (no draw) covers 80% of outcomes at 1.24.
The draw sits at only 20%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Villarreal average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 5, Paris Saint Germain 3.6 and 1.2 across 5.
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
On the goal lines Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain reads 89% for over 1.5, 73% for over 2.5 and 53% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 27%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 73%; Betwinner pay 1.36.
Both teams to score is 69%: Villarreal find the net in 75% of simulated matches and Paris Saint Germain in 91%. Villarreal keep a clean sheet 9% of the time and Paris Saint Germain 25%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 69%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, followed by 1-1 (7.5%) and 1-3 (7.2%).
With the top scoreline at 9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Paris Saint Germain, full-time Paris Saint Germain is the top combination at 39%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 82%.
All markets, Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain
The grid built from 1.40 and 2.41 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Villarreal to win21%4.98
Draw20%4.83
Paris Saint Germain to win59%1.65
Villarreal, draw no bet26%fair 3.85
Paris Saint Germain, draw no bet74%fair 1.35
Double chance
Villarreal or draw41%2.45
Paris Saint Germain or draw79%1.23
Villarreal or Paris Saint Germain (no draw)80%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals89%fair 1.12
Over 2.5 goals73%1.36
Over 3.5 goals53%fair 1.89
Over 4.5 goals33%fair 2.99
Under 1.5 goals11%fair 9.35
Under 2.5 goals27%3.20
Under 3.5 goals47%fair 2.12
BTTS
Both teams to score69%1.42
Not both teams to score31%2.80
Halves
First-half goal82%fair 1.22
Over 1.5 first-half goals51%fair 1.96
Second-half goal88%fair 1.14
Team goals
Villarreal to score75%fair 1.33
Paris Saint Germain to score91%fair 1.10
Villarreal clean sheet9%fair 11.11
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet25%fair 4.05
Villarreal to win to nil8%fair 12.05
Paris Saint Germain to win to nil23%fair 4.41
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-29%
1-17.5%
1-37.2%
0-26.4%
2-26.3%
0-15.3%
Half-time / full-time
Paris Saint Germain / Paris Saint Germain39.4%
Draw / Paris Saint Germain16.2%
Villarreal / Villarreal12.2%
Draw / Draw9.3%
Draw / Villarreal7.1%
Questions about Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain
Who is favourite in Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the best chance at 59%, with the draw at 20%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 73%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
The BTTS yes line is rated 69%. Villarreal find the net in 75% of simulated matches and Paris Saint Germain in 91%.
What time does Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain starts at 20:00 UTC on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.