Meistriliiga
Nõmme UnitedHomeLWWWL
4:2Half-time 1:1
VaprusAwayDLLDL472528
Nõmme United winDrawVaprus win
Nõmme UnitedHomeLWWWLVaprusAwayDLLDL- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.44 1.93 : 1.51
- Favourite
- 47% Nõmme United
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 68% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Nõmme United vs Vaprus
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.45 | 3.09 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.40 | 2.70 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Nõmme United to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Nõmme United vs Vaprus are 2.03 for Nõmme United at 1xBet, 3.45 for the draw at 1xBet and 3.09 for Vaprus at 1xBet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.4%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.43 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.46 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.40 (1xBet) and no 2.70 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
76%
Our prediction
Nõmme United or Vaprus (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
66% chance1.43
BTTSBoth teams to score
68% chance1.40
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
86% chance1.17fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
9% chance10.75fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Nõmme United, full-time Nõmme United
30% chance3.36fair
First halfFirst-half goal
79% chance1.27fair
Nõmme United v Vaprus head to head
0Nõmme United wins
0Draws
1Vaprus wins
- 5 Sep 26Vaprus1:0Nõmme United
1 meeting since coverage began, 1 goals in total: Nõmme United scored 0, Vaprus scored 1.
Nõmme United vs Vaprus prediction
Nõmme United vs Vaprus prediction and best bet
Nõmme United vs Vaprus prediction for the Meistriliiga on Friday, 23 October 2026: the model makes Nõmme United marginally ahead at 47%, with the draw at 25% and Vaprus at 29%.
Nõmme United are expected to score 1.93 and Vaprus 1.51, so the total line is 3.44 goals; over 2.5 lands at 66% and BTTS at 68%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is nõmme United or Vaprus (no draw) at 76%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.23. That price implies 81%, 6 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Nõmme United vs Vaprus.
Form check: Nõmme United have won 3 of their last 5 with 11 scored and 8 conceded, Vaprus 0 of 5 scoring 5 and conceding 10.
Nõmme United vs Vaprus over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 86%, over 2.5 at 66%, over 3.5 at 45%; under 2.5 is 34% and under 3.5 is 55%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 66%; 1xBet pay 1.43.
BTTS yes stands at 68%. Nõmme United score in 86% of simulations against a 15% clean sheet for Vaprus; Vaprus score in 78% while Nõmme United shut them out 22% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 68%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 9.3%, then 2-1 at 9% and 1-2 at 7.1%.
With the top scoreline at 9.3%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Nõmme United vs Vaprus; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Nõmme United, full-time Nõmme United leads at 30%. A goal before the break is rated 79%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Nõmme United vs Vaprus
The grid built from 1.93 and 1.51 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Nõmme United to win47%2.03
Draw25%3.45
Vaprus to win29%3.09
Nõmme United, draw no bet62%fair 1.62
Vaprus, draw no bet38%fair 2.61
Double chance
Nõmme United or draw71%1.28
Vaprus or draw54%1.63
Nõmme United or Vaprus (no draw)76%1.23
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals86%fair 1.17
Over 2.5 goals66%1.43
Over 3.5 goals45%fair 2.22
Over 4.5 goals26%fair 3.80
Under 1.5 goals14%fair 7.04
Under 2.5 goals34%2.46
Under 3.5 goals55%fair 1.82
BTTS
Both teams to score68%1.40
Not both teams to score32%2.70
Halves
First-half goal79%fair 1.27
Over 1.5 first-half goals46%fair 2.18
Second-half goal85%fair 1.18
Team goals
Nõmme United to score86%fair 1.17
Vaprus to score78%fair 1.28
Nõmme United clean sheet22%fair 4.52
Vaprus clean sheet15%fair 6.90
Nõmme United to win to nil20%fair 4.93
Vaprus to win to nil13%fair 7.46
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-19.3%
2-19%
1-27.1%
2-26.8%
1-06.2%
2-06%
Half-time / full-time
Nõmme United / Nõmme United29.8%
Vaprus / Vaprus17.9%
Draw / Nõmme United14.4%
Draw / Draw11.3%
Draw / Vaprus10%
Questions about Nõmme United vs Vaprus
Nõmme United or Vaprus: which side does the model back?
The model gives Nõmme United the best chance at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Nõmme United vs Vaprus?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.3%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 66% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Nõmme United vs Vaprus?
The BTTS yes line is rated 68%. Nõmme United find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Vaprus in 78%.
When do Nõmme United play Vaprus?
Nõmme United vs Vaprus starts at 16:00 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.