Uzbekistan Super League
PakhtakorHomeDDLLW
1:3Half-time 1:0
NeftchiAwayDLWWL442630
Pakhtakor winDrawNeftchi win
PakhtakorHomeDDLLWNeftchiAwayDLWWL- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.13 1.71 : 1.42
- Favourite
- 44% Pakhtakor
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 63% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Pakhtakor vs Neftchi odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.50 | 3.09 | 1.60 | 2.24 | 1.48 | 2.41 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Pakhtakor to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Pakhtakor vs Neftchi are 2.17 for Pakhtakor at 1xBet, 3.50 for the draw at 1xBet and 3.09 for Neftchi at 1xBet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 93.4%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.60 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.24 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.48 (1xBet) and no 2.41 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
74%
Our prediction
Pakhtakor or Neftchi (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
60% chance1.60
BTTSBoth teams to score
63% chance1.48
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.22fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.43fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Pakhtakor, full-time Pakhtakor
27% chance3.68fair
First halfFirst-half goal
76% chance1.32fair
Pakhtakor vs Neftchi prediction
Our Pakhtakor vs Neftchi prediction and pick
Pakhtakor vs Neftchi prediction for the Uzbekistan Super League on Friday, 23 October 2026: the model makes Pakhtakor marginally ahead at 44%, with the draw at 26% and Neftchi at 31%.
Pakhtakor are expected to score 1.71 and Neftchi 1.42, so the total line is 3.13 goals; over 2.5 lands at 60% and BTTS at 63%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Pakhtakor or Neftchi (no draw) is the main selection, rated 74%. At 1.27 with 1xBet the market prices it at 79%, against 74% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Pakhtakor vs Neftchi.
Form check: Pakhtakor have won 1 of their last 5 with 4 scored and 6 conceded, Neftchi 2 of 5 scoring 11 and conceding 10.
Goals forecast for Pakhtakor vs Neftchi with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 82%, over 2.5 at 60%, over 3.5 at 38%; under 2.5 is 40% and under 3.5 is 62%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 60%; 1xBet pay 1.60.
Both teams to score is 63%: Pakhtakor find the net in 82% of simulated matches and Neftchi in 76%. Pakhtakor keep a clean sheet 24% of the time and Neftchi 18%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%, followed by 2-1 (9.1%) and 1-2 (7.5%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.6% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Pakhtakor, full-time Pakhtakor leads at 27%. A goal before the break is rated 76%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Pakhtakor vs Neftchi
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 44% / 26% / 31% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Pakhtakor to win44%2.17
Draw26%3.50
Neftchi to win31%3.09
Pakhtakor, draw no bet59%fair 1.71
Neftchi, draw no bet41%fair 2.42
Double chance
Pakhtakor or draw69%1.34
Neftchi or draw56%1.64
Pakhtakor or Neftchi (no draw)74%1.27
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.60
Over 3.5 goals38%fair 2.62
Over 4.5 goals21%fair 4.83
Under 1.5 goals18%fair 5.52
Under 2.5 goals40%2.24
Under 3.5 goals62%fair 1.62
BTTS
Both teams to score63%1.48
Not both teams to score37%2.41
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.32
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.43
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
Pakhtakor to score82%fair 1.22
Neftchi to score76%fair 1.32
Pakhtakor clean sheet24%fair 4.13
Neftchi clean sheet18%fair 5.52
Pakhtakor to win to nil22%fair 4.50
Neftchi to win to nil17%fair 6.02
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.6%
2-19.1%
1-27.5%
1-07.5%
2-26.4%
2-06.4%
Half-time / full-time
Pakhtakor / Pakhtakor27.2%
Neftchi / Neftchi18.8%
Draw / Pakhtakor14.3%
Draw / Draw12.8%
Draw / Neftchi10.9%
Questions about Pakhtakor vs Neftchi
Who is favourite in Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
The model gives Pakhtakor the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What scoreline is most likely in Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.6%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 60% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
The BTTS yes line is rated 63%. Pakhtakor find the net in 82% of simulated matches and Neftchi in 76%.
When is Pakhtakor vs Neftchi and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 14:00 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.