AFC Champions League Elite
NeftchiHomeDLWWL
1:2Half-time 1:1
Al-Ittihad FCAwayLWWWD212257
Neftchi winDrawAl-Ittihad FC win
NeftchiHomeDLWWLAl-Ittihad FCAwayLWWWD- Kick-off Mon 26 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.12 1.14 : 1.98
- Favourite
- 56% Al-Ittihad FC
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 60% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 22Bet | 4.54 | 4.18 | 1.69 | 1.61 | 2.32 | 1.57 | 2.26 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 4.40 | 4.00 | 1.65 | 1.60 | 2.22 | 1.58 | 2.16 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 4.64 | 4.28 | 1.66 | 1.53 | 2.41 | 1.54 | 2.32 | Bet |
 Melbet | 4.54 | 4.18 | 1.69 | 1.61 | 2.32 | 1.57 | 2.26 | Bet |
 Stake | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.68 | 1.51 | 2.35 | 1.54 | 2.28 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Al-Ittihad FC to win partner prices
Betwinner pay the best Neftchi price at 4.64, Betwinner lead the draw at 4.28 and Melbet have Al-Ittihad FC longest at 1.69.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 95.9%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.61 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.41 (Betwinner); both teams to score yes pays 1.58 (BC.Game) and no 2.32 (Betwinner).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
56%
Our prediction
Al-Ittihad FC to win
Double chanceAl-Ittihad FC or draw
79% chance1.20
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
60% chance1.61
BTTSBoth teams to score
60% chance1.58
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.22fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance10.00fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Al-Ittihad FC, full-time Al-Ittihad FC
36% chance2.75fair
Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC prediction
Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC prediction, who wins and at what price
Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC prediction for the AFC Champions League Elite on Monday, 26 October 2026: the model makes Al-Ittihad FC a narrow favourite at 56%, with the draw at 22% and Neftchi at 21%.
Expected goals are 1.14 for Neftchi and 1.98 for Al-Ittihad FC, a total of 3.12, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 60%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is al-Ittihad FC to win at 56%. The best price in our comparison is 1.69 at Melbet, which implies 59%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC.
For a safer line, al-Ittihad FC or draw covers 79% of outcomes at 1.20.
Neftchi average 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded across their last 5, Al-Ittihad FC 2.0 and 1.0 across 5.
How many goals in Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 82%, over 2.5 at 60%, over 3.5 at 38%; under 2.5 is 40% and under 3.5 is 62%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 60%, best priced 1.61 at 22Bet.
BTTS yes stands at 60%. Neftchi score in 68% of simulations against a 32% clean sheet for Al-Ittihad FC; Al-Ittihad FC score in 86% while Neftchi shut them out 14% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10%, then 1-2 at 9.9% and 0-1 at 8.7%.
With the top scoreline at 10%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Al-Ittihad FC, full-time Al-Ittihad FC leads at 36%. A goal before the break is rated 75%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC
The grid built from 1.14 and 1.98 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Neftchi to win21%4.64
Draw22%4.28
Al-Ittihad FC to win56%1.69
Neftchi, draw no bet27%fair 3.65
Al-Ittihad FC, draw no bet73%fair 1.38
Double chance
Neftchi or draw44%2.23
Al-Ittihad FC or draw79%1.20
Neftchi or Al-Ittihad FC (no draw)78%1.23
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.61
Over 3.5 goals38%fair 2.63
Over 4.5 goals21%fair 4.88
Under 1.5 goals18%fair 5.49
Under 2.5 goals40%2.41
Under 3.5 goals62%fair 1.61
BTTS
Both teams to score60%1.58
Not both teams to score40%2.32
Halves
First-half goal75%fair 1.33
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.44
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
Neftchi to score68%fair 1.47
Al-Ittihad FC to score86%fair 1.16
Neftchi clean sheet14%fair 7.25
Al-Ittihad FC clean sheet32%fair 3.13
Neftchi to win to nil13%fair 7.87
Al-Ittihad FC to win to nil29%fair 3.40
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110%
1-29.9%
0-18.7%
0-28.7%
1-36.5%
0-35.7%
Half-time / full-time
Al-Ittihad FC / Al-Ittihad FC36.3%
Draw / Al-Ittihad FC17.3%
Neftchi / Neftchi12.1%
Draw / Draw12.1%
Draw / Neftchi7.8%
Questions about Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC
Who is favourite in Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC?
The model gives Al-Ittihad FC the best chance at 56%, with the draw at 22%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 60% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Neftchi vs Al-Ittihad FC?
The BTTS yes line is rated 60%. Neftchi find the net in 68% of simulated matches and Al-Ittihad FC in 86%.
When do Neftchi play Al-Ittihad FC?
Kick-off is 13:45 UTC on Monday, 26 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.