Uruguay Segunda División
FenixHomeWDLLD
1:1Half-time 0:1
CerritoAwayDWLDD422830
Fenix winDrawCerrito win
FenixHomeWDLLDCerritoAwayDWLDD- Kick-off Sat 31 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.54 1.41 : 1.13
- Favourite
- 42% Fenix
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 52% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Best odds for Fenix vs Cerrito
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.07 | 3.14 | 3.24 | 1.94 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.94 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.18 | 3.33 | 3.22 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.93 | 1.82 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.16 | 3.20 | 3.15 | 2.04 | 1.71 | 1.80 | 1.84 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.18 | 3.33 | 3.22 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.93 | 1.82 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.18 | 3.33 | 3.22 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.93 | 1.82 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Fenix to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Fenix vs Cerrito prediction: Fenix 2.18 (22Bet), draw 3.33 (22Bet), Cerrito 3.24 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 93.6%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.11 (22Bet) and under 2.5 1.74 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.93 (22Bet) and no 1.94 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
72%
Our prediction
Fenix or Cerrito (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
53% chance1.74
BTTSBoth teams to score
52% chance1.93
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
72% chance1.39fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.94fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Fenix, full-time Fenix
26% chance3.88fair
First halfFirst-half goal
68% chance1.47fair
Fenix vs Cerrito prediction
Fenix vs Cerrito prediction, who wins and at what price
Fenix are marginally ahead in the Fenix vs Cerrito prediction, rated 42% to win this Uruguay Segunda División match on Saturday, 31 October 2026. Cerrito sit at 29% and the draw at 28%.
Expected goals are 1.41 for Fenix and 1.13 for Cerrito, a total of 2.54, which puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 52%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is fenix or Cerrito (no draw) at 72%. The best price in our comparison is 1.30 at 22Bet, which implies 77%, so the model sits 5 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 5 matches Fenix stand at 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Cerrito show 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats in 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Fenix vs Cerrito
Under 2.5 goals is rated 53% and under 3.5 75%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 72% and over 2.5 at 47%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 53%, best priced 1.74 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 52%, built from Fenix scoring in 76% of runs and Cerrito in 68%; clean sheets come at 32% for Fenix and 24% for Cerrito.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.6%, then 1-0 at 11.1% and 0-1 at 8.9%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.6% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Fenix, full-time Fenix leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 68%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Fenix vs Cerrito
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 42% / 28% / 29% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Fenix to win42%2.18
Draw28%3.33
Cerrito to win29%3.24
Fenix, draw no bet59%fair 1.69
Cerrito, draw no bet41%fair 2.44
Double chance
Fenix or draw71%1.32
Cerrito or draw58%1.64
Fenix or Cerrito (no draw)72%1.30
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals72%fair 1.39
Over 2.5 goals47%2.11
Over 3.5 goals25%fair 3.98
Over 4.5 goals11%fair 8.77
Under 1.5 goals28%fair 3.58
Under 2.5 goals53%1.74
Under 3.5 goals75%fair 1.34
BTTS
Both teams to score52%1.93
Not both teams to score49%1.94
Halves
First-half goal68%fair 1.47
Over 1.5 first-half goals32%fair 3.15
Second-half goal75%fair 1.33
Team goals
Fenix to score76%fair 1.32
Cerrito to score68%fair 1.48
Fenix clean sheet32%fair 3.10
Cerrito clean sheet24%fair 4.10
Fenix to win to nil30%fair 3.37
Cerrito to win to nil23%fair 4.44
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.6%
1-011.1%
0-18.9%
2-18.9%
0-07.9%
2-07.8%
Half-time / full-time
Fenix / Fenix25.8%
Cerrito / Cerrito17.1%
Draw / Draw16.4%
Draw / Fenix15.3%
Draw / Cerrito11.3%
Questions about Fenix vs Cerrito
Fenix or Cerrito: which side does the model back?
The model gives Fenix the best chance at 42%, with the draw at 28%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Fenix vs Cerrito?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.6%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 47%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Fenix vs Cerrito both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 52%. Fenix find the net in 76% of simulated matches and Cerrito in 68%.
When do Fenix play Cerrito?
Kick-off is 19:00 UTC on Saturday, 31 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.