Uganda Premier League
Kigezi HomeBoyzHomeLLLL
Fri 6 Nov
Mbarara CityAwayLWLWL283339
Kigezi HomeBoyz winDrawMbarara City win
Kigezi HomeBoyzHomeLLLLMbarara CityAwayLWLWL- Kick-off Fri 6 Nov
- Expected goals
- 1.78 0.78 : 1.00
- Favourite
- 40% Mbarara City
- Over 2.5 goals
- 27% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 34% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
Bookmakers have not opened Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City yet. The lines usually arrive within two days of kick-off, and the markets above show the fair price from the model until then.
72%
Our prediction
Mbarara City or draw
1.38fair
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
74% chance1.36fair
BTTSNot both teams to score
66% chance1.52fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
53% chance1.88fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-0
17% chance5.92fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Draw, full-time Draw
25% chance4.08fair
First halfFirst-half goal
55% chance1.81fair
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City prediction
Our Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City prediction and pick
The Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City prediction leans to Mbarara City: 40% against 28% for Kigezi HomeBoyz, with 33% left for the draw, in the Uganda Premier League on Friday, 6 November 2026.
The goal expectancy is 1.78 in total, split 0.78 to Kigezi HomeBoyz and 1.00 to Mbarara City. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 27% and both teams to score 34%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Our main pick is mbarara City or draw at 72%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
A 33% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.
Over the last 4 matches Kigezi HomeBoyz stand at 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Mbarara City show 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 5.
A low-scoring Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 74% and under 3.5 89%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 53% and over 2.5 at 27%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 74%.
BTTS yes stands at 34%. Kigezi HomeBoyz score in 54% of simulations against a 46% clean sheet for Mbarara City; Mbarara City score in 63% while Kigezi HomeBoyz shut them out 37% of the time.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.
Correct score: 0-0 leads at 16.9%, then 0-1 at 16.9% and 1-0 at 13.2%.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Draw, full-time Draw is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 55%.
Every market rated for Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City
The grid built from 0.78 and 1.00 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Kigezi HomeBoyz to win28%fair 3.62
Draw33%fair 3.05
Mbarara City to win40%fair 2.53
Kigezi HomeBoyz, draw no bet41%fair 2.43
Mbarara City, draw no bet59%fair 1.70
Double chance
Kigezi HomeBoyz or draw60%fair 1.66
Mbarara City or draw72%fair 1.38
Kigezi HomeBoyz or Mbarara City (no draw)67%fair 1.49
Goals
Over 0.5 goals83%fair 1.20
Over 1.5 goals53%fair 1.88
Over 2.5 goals27%fair 3.77
Over 3.5 goals11%fair 9.43
Over 4.5 goals4%fair 28.57
Under 1.5 goals47%fair 2.13
Under 2.5 goals74%fair 1.36
Under 3.5 goals89%fair 1.12
BTTS
Both teams to score34%fair 2.91
Not both teams to score66%fair 1.52
Halves
First-half goal55%fair 1.81
Over 1.5 first-half goals19%fair 5.21
Second-half goal62%fair 1.60
Team goals
Kigezi HomeBoyz to score54%fair 1.85
Mbarara City to score63%fair 1.58
Kigezi HomeBoyz clean sheet37%fair 2.72
Mbarara City clean sheet46%fair 2.18
Kigezi HomeBoyz to win to nil25%fair 3.94
Mbarara City to win to nil36%fair 2.75
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.06
Even number of goals51%fair 1.95
Most likely scores
0-016.9%
0-116.9%
1-013.2%
1-113.2%
0-28.4%
1-26.6%
Half-time / full-time
Draw / Draw24.5%
Mbarara City / Mbarara City22.3%
Draw / Mbarara City16%
Kigezi HomeBoyz / Kigezi HomeBoyz14.9%
Draw / Kigezi HomeBoyz11.7%
Questions about Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City
Kigezi HomeBoyz or Mbarara City: which side does the model back?
The model gives Mbarara City the best chance at 40%, with the draw at 33%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City correct score: what does the model say?
0-0 is the most likely scoreline at 16.9%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 27% backs the same picture with less variance.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 34%. Kigezi HomeBoyz find the net in 54% of simulated matches and Mbarara City in 63%.
What time does Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City kick off?
Kick-off is 13:00 UTC on Friday, 6 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.