Tunisia Ligue 1
ES Hammam-SousseHomeLLL
0:2Half-time 0:1
US Ben GuerdaneAwayWWWW343531
ES Hammam-Sousse winDrawUS Ben Guerdane win
ES Hammam-SousseHomeLLLUS Ben GuerdaneAwayWWWW- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 1.95 1.00 : 0.95
- Favourite
- 34% ES Hammam-Sousse
- Over 2.5 goals
- 31% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 41% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.56 | 2.67 | 2.80 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 2.18 | 1.58 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
ES Hammam-Sousse to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best ES Hammam-Sousse price at 2.56, 1xBet lead the draw at 2.67 and 1xBet have US Ben Guerdane longest at 2.80.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 89.1%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.70 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.36 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.18 (1xBet) and no 1.58 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
69%
Our prediction
ES Hammam-Sousse or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
70% chance1.36
BTTSNot both teams to score
59% chance1.58
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
58% chance1.72fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-0
14% chance7.04fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Draw, full-time Draw
22% chance4.46fair
First halfFirst-half goal
58% chance1.71fair
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane prediction
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane prediction, who wins and at what price
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane prediction for the Tunisia Ligue 1 on Saturday, 17 October 2026: the model calls it close, ES Hammam-Sousse 34%, draw 35%, US Ben Guerdane 31%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.
The goal expectancy is 1.95 in total, split 1.00 to ES Hammam-Sousse and 0.95 to US Ben Guerdane. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 31% and both teams to score 41%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is eS Hammam-Sousse or draw at 69%. The best price in our comparison is 1.31 at 1xBet, which implies 76%, so the model sits 7 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane.
A 35% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.
Over the last 3 matches ES Hammam-Sousse stand at 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; US Ben Guerdane show 4 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 4.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 58%, over 2.5 at 31%, over 3.5 at 13%; under 2.5 is 70% and under 3.5 is 87%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 70%; 1xBet pay 1.36.
BTTS yes stands at 41%. ES Hammam-Sousse score in 63% of simulations against a 37% clean sheet for US Ben Guerdane; US Ben Guerdane score in 61% while ES Hammam-Sousse shut them out 39% of the time.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 59%.
The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 14.2%, followed by 1-0 (14.2%) and 0-1 (13.5%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 14.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Draw, full-time Draw leads at 22%. A goal before the break is rated 58%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
The grid built from 1.00 and 0.95 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
ES Hammam-Sousse to win34%2.56
Draw35%2.67
US Ben Guerdane to win31%2.80
ES Hammam-Sousse, draw no bet52%fair 1.91
US Ben Guerdane, draw no bet48%fair 2.10
Double chance
ES Hammam-Sousse or draw69%1.31
US Ben Guerdane or draw66%1.37
ES Hammam-Sousse or US Ben Guerdane (no draw)65%1.34
Goals
Over 0.5 goals86%fair 1.17
Over 1.5 goals58%fair 1.72
Over 2.5 goals31%2.70
Over 3.5 goals13%fair 7.46
Over 4.5 goals5%fair 20.83
Under 1.5 goals42%fair 2.38
Under 2.5 goals70%1.36
Under 3.5 goals87%fair 1.15
BTTS
Both teams to score41%2.18
Not both teams to score59%1.58
Halves
First-half goal58%fair 1.71
Over 1.5 first-half goals22%fair 4.57
Second-half goal66%fair 1.52
Team goals
ES Hammam-Sousse to score63%fair 1.58
US Ben Guerdane to score61%fair 1.63
ES Hammam-Sousse clean sheet39%fair 2.58
US Ben Guerdane clean sheet37%fair 2.72
ES Hammam-Sousse to win to nil32%fair 3.16
US Ben Guerdane to win to nil29%fair 3.50
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.04
Even number of goals51%fair 1.96
Most likely scores
0-014.2%
1-014.2%
0-113.5%
1-113.5%
2-07.1%
2-16.8%
Half-time / full-time
Draw / Draw22.4%
ES Hammam-Sousse / ES Hammam-Sousse20%
US Ben Guerdane / US Ben Guerdane18.4%
Draw / ES Hammam-Sousse14.3%
Draw / US Ben Guerdane13.3%
Questions about ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
Who will win ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
The model gives ES Hammam-Sousse the best chance at 34%, with the draw at 35%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane correct score: what does the model say?
0-0 is the most likely scoreline at 14.2%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 31% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
The BTTS yes line is rated 41%. ES Hammam-Sousse find the net in 63% of simulated matches and US Ben Guerdane in 61%.
When is ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane and where is the result shown?
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane starts at 13:30 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.