Tunisia Ligue 1
AS MarsaHomeDWD
3:0Half-time 2:0
ES MetlaouiAwayLL473122
AS Marsa winDrawES Metlaoui win
AS MarsaHomeDWDES MetlaouiAwayLL- Kick-off Sun 18 Oct
- Expected goals
- 1.89 1.18 : 0.71
- Favourite
- 47% AS Marsa
- Over 2.5 goals
- 29% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 37% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.94 | 2.85 | 4.12 | 2.78 | 1.34 | 2.36 | 1.50 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
AS Marsa to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best AS Marsa price at 1.94, 1xBet lead the draw at 2.85 and 1xBet have ES Metlaoui longest at 4.12.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.2%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.78 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.34 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.36 (1xBet) and no 1.50 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
78%
Our prediction
AS Marsa or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
71% chance1.34
BTTSNot both teams to score
63% chance1.50
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
56% chance1.78fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
18% chance5.62fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time AS Marsa, full-time AS Marsa
27% chance3.65fair
First halfFirst-half goal
57% chance1.75fair
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui prediction
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui prediction and best bet
The AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui prediction leans to AS Marsa: 47% against 22% for ES Metlaoui, with 31% left for the draw, in the Tunisia Ligue 1 on Sunday, 18 October 2026.
AS Marsa are expected to score 1.18 and ES Metlaoui 0.71, so the total line is 1.89 goals; over 2.5 lands at 29% and BTTS at 37%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
AS Marsa or draw is the main selection, rated 78%. The best price in our comparison is 1.15 at 1xBet, which implies 87%, so the model sits 9 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui.
The draw is live at 31%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 56%, over 2.5 at 29%, over 3.5 at 12%; under 2.5 is 71% and under 3.5 is 88%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 71%, best priced 1.34 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 37%. AS Marsa score in 69% of simulations against a 31% clean sheet for ES Metlaoui; ES Metlaoui score in 51% while AS Marsa shut them out 49% of the time.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.
Correct score: 1-0 leads at 17.8%, then 0-0 at 15.1% and 1-1 at 12.7%.
Half-time / full-time: half-time AS Marsa, full-time AS Marsa is the top combination at 27%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 57%.
Every market for AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
The grid built from 1.18 and 0.71 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
AS Marsa to win47%1.94
Draw31%2.85
ES Metlaoui to win22%4.12
AS Marsa, draw no bet68%fair 1.47
ES Metlaoui, draw no bet32%fair 3.13
Double chance
AS Marsa or draw78%1.15
ES Metlaoui or draw53%1.68
AS Marsa or ES Metlaoui (no draw)69%1.32
Goals
Over 0.5 goals85%fair 1.18
Over 1.5 goals56%fair 1.78
Over 2.5 goals29%2.78
Over 3.5 goals12%fair 8.06
Over 4.5 goals4%fair 23.26
Under 1.5 goals44%fair 2.29
Under 2.5 goals71%1.34
Under 3.5 goals88%fair 1.14
BTTS
Both teams to score37%2.36
Not both teams to score63%1.50
Halves
First-half goal57%fair 1.75
Over 1.5 first-half goals21%fair 4.78
Second-half goal65%fair 1.55
Team goals
AS Marsa to score69%fair 1.44
ES Metlaoui to score51%fair 1.97
AS Marsa clean sheet49%fair 2.03
ES Metlaoui clean sheet31%fair 3.26
AS Marsa to win to nil43%fair 2.30
ES Metlaoui to win to nil20%fair 4.93
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.04
Even number of goals51%fair 1.96
Most likely scores
1-017.8%
0-015.1%
1-112.7%
0-110.7%
2-010.5%
2-17.5%
Half-time / full-time
AS Marsa / AS Marsa27.4%
Draw / Draw22.6%
Draw / AS Marsa18.2%
ES Metlaoui / ES Metlaoui11.8%
Draw / ES Metlaoui9.5%
Questions about AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
AS Marsa or ES Metlaoui: which side does the model back?
The model gives AS Marsa the best chance at 47%, with the draw at 31%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui correct score: what does the model say?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 17.8%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 29% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui?
The BTTS yes line is rated 37%. AS Marsa find the net in 69% of simulated matches and ES Metlaoui in 51%.
When is AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui and where is the result shown?
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui starts at 13:30 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.