Simba vs Mbeya City prediction

Our Simba vs Mbeya City prediction and pick

Simba are the clear favourite in the Simba vs Mbeya City prediction, rated 70% to win this Ligi kuu Bara match on Saturday, 24 October 2026. Mbeya City sit at 11% and the draw at 19%.

Expected goals are 2.06 for Simba and 0.68 for Mbeya City, a total of 2.74, which puts over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 43%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Simba vs Mbeya City is simba to win, a 70% chance. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.

Simba or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 89% chance.

With the draw down at 19%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Form check: Simba have won 5 of their last 5 with 18 scored and 3 conceded, Mbeya City 0 of 3 scoring 2 and conceding 9.

How many goals in Simba vs Mbeya City? Lines, BTTS and scorelines

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 76%, over 2.5 at 51%, over 3.5 at 30%; under 2.5 is 49% and under 3.5 is 71%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 51%.

The chance of both teams scoring is 43%, built from Simba scoring in 87% of runs and Mbeya City in 49%; clean sheets come at 51% for Simba and 13% for Mbeya City.

The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 13.7%, followed by 1-0 (13.3%) and 3-0 (9.4%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Simba, full-time Simba leads at 46%. A goal before the break is rated 71%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.