Super League
FC ThunHomeLDLLW
2:3Half-time 1:1
FC LuganoAwayWWWWW232057
FC Thun winDrawFC Lugano win
FC ThunHomeLDLLWFC LuganoAwayWWWWW- Kick-off Sun 25 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.76 1.45 : 2.31
- Favourite
- 57% FC Lugano
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 70% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
FC Thun vs FC Lugano betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.74 | 4.15 | 1.78 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.35 | 2.94 | Bet |
 22Bet | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.95 | 1.42 | 2.75 | 1.41 | 2.77 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 3.35 | 3.90 | 1.92 | 1.37 | 2.90 | 1.36 | 2.88 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.95 | 1.42 | 2.75 | 1.41 | 2.77 | Bet |
 Melbet | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.95 | 1.42 | 2.75 | 1.41 | 2.77 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
FC Lugano to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the FC Thun vs FC Lugano prediction: FC Thun 3.74 (1xBet), draw 4.15 (1xBet), FC Lugano 1.95 (Melbet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 97.9%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.42 (Betwinner) and under 2.5 2.92 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.41 (22Bet) and no 2.94 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
57%
Our prediction
FC Lugano to win
Double chanceFC Thun or FC Lugano (no draw)
80% chance1.24
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
72% chance1.42
BTTSBoth teams to score
70% chance1.41
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
89% chance1.12fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
9% chance11.11fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time FC Lugano, full-time FC Lugano
37% chance2.70fair
FC Thun vs FC Lugano prediction
FC Thun vs FC Lugano prediction and best bet
FC Lugano are a narrow favourite in the FC Thun vs FC Lugano prediction, rated 57% to win this Super League match on Sunday, 25 October 2026. FC Thun sit at 23% and the draw at 20%.
The goal expectancy is 3.76 in total, split 1.45 to FC Thun and 2.31 to FC Lugano. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 72% and both teams to score 70%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
FC Lugano to win is the main selection, rated 57%. Melbet offer the top price at 1.95. That price implies 51%, 5 points under the model figure.
A 10.6% edge on a flat stake is the margin here, so the selection qualifies as value and not only as the likely result.
For a safer line, fC Thun or FC Lugano (no draw) covers 80% of outcomes at 1.24.
With the draw down at 20%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
FC Thun average 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded across their last 5, FC Lugano 3.4 and 1.4 across 5.
Goals forecast for FC Thun vs FC Lugano with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 89%, over 2.5 at 72%, over 3.5 at 52%; under 2.5 is 29% and under 3.5 is 48%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 72%, best priced 1.42 at Betwinner.
The chance of both teams scoring is 70%, built from FC Thun scoring in 77% of runs and FC Lugano in 90%; clean sheets come at 10% for FC Thun and 24% for FC Lugano.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 70%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for FC Thun vs FC Lugano: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (7.8%) and 1-3 (6.9%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time FC Lugano, full-time FC Lugano leads at 37%. A goal before the break is rated 82%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, FC Thun vs FC Lugano
The grid built from 1.45 and 2.31 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
FC Thun to win23%3.74
Draw20%4.15
FC Lugano to win57%1.95
FC Thun, draw no bet29%fair 3.45
FC Lugano, draw no bet71%fair 1.41
Double chance
FC Thun or draw43%1.97
FC Lugano or draw77%1.29
FC Thun or FC Lugano (no draw)80%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals89%fair 1.12
Over 2.5 goals72%1.42
Over 3.5 goals52%fair 1.93
Over 4.5 goals32%fair 3.09
Under 1.5 goals11%fair 9.01
Under 2.5 goals29%2.92
Under 3.5 goals48%fair 2.07
BTTS
Both teams to score70%1.41
Not both teams to score30%2.94
Halves
First-half goal82%fair 1.23
Over 1.5 first-half goals50%fair 1.98
Second-half goal87%fair 1.14
Team goals
FC Thun to score77%fair 1.31
FC Lugano to score90%fair 1.11
FC Thun clean sheet10%fair 10.10
FC Lugano clean sheet24%fair 4.26
FC Thun to win to nil9%fair 10.99
FC Lugano to win to nil22%fair 4.63
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-29%
1-17.8%
1-36.9%
2-26.5%
0-26.2%
2-15.7%
Half-time / full-time
FC Lugano / FC Lugano37%
Draw / FC Lugano15.8%
FC Thun / FC Thun13.6%
Draw / Draw9.7%
Draw / FC Thun7.8%
Questions about FC Thun vs FC Lugano
FC Thun or FC Lugano: which side does the model back?
The model gives FC Lugano the best chance at 57%, with the draw at 20%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
FC Thun vs FC Lugano correct score: what does the model say?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 72%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
FC Thun vs FC Lugano both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 70%. FC Thun find the net in 77% of simulated matches and FC Lugano in 90%.
When is FC Thun vs FC Lugano and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 13:00 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.