Stenhousemuir vs Livingston prediction

Stenhousemuir vs Livingston prediction and best bet

Stenhousemuir host Livingston on Friday, 30 October 2026 in the Scotland Championship, and the model has Livingston at 56%, the draw at 24% and Stenhousemuir at 20%: that is the Stenhousemuir vs Livingston prediction in one line.

Expected goals are 0.94 for Stenhousemuir and 1.75 for Livingston, a total of 2.69, which puts over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 51%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Livingston to win is the main selection, rated 56%. The best price in our comparison is 1.59 at 1xBet, which implies 63%, so the model sits 7 points below the market.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

Livingston or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 80% chance, priced 1.16.

Form check: Stenhousemuir have won 0 of their last 5 with 1 scored and 10 conceded, Livingston 2 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 4.

Stenhousemuir vs Livingston goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

On the goal lines Stenhousemuir vs Livingston reads 75% for over 1.5, 50% for over 2.5 and 28% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 50%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 50%; Melbet pay 1.82.

The chance of both teams scoring is 51%, built from Stenhousemuir scoring in 61% of runs and Livingston in 83%; clean sheets come at 17% for Stenhousemuir and 39% for Livingston.

The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 11.9%, followed by 1-1 (11.2%) and 0-2 (10.4%).

With the top scoreline at 11.9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Stenhousemuir vs Livingston; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Livingston, full-time Livingston is the top combination at 35%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 70%.