Taça de Portugal
LouletanoHomeWL
0:1Half-time 0:0
Rio AveAwayLWWLL162361
Louletano winDrawRio Ave win
LouletanoHomeWLRio AveAwayLWWLL- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.87 0.90 : 1.97
- Favourite
- 62% Rio Ave
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 53% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Louletano vs Rio Ave odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 5.55 | 3.88 | 1.56 | 1.73 | 2.02 | 1.77 | 1.94 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Rio Ave to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Louletano price at 5.55, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.88 and 1xBet have Rio Ave longest at 1.56.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 92.7%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.73 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.02 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.77 (1xBet) and no 1.94 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
62%
Our prediction
Rio Ave to win
Double chanceRio Ave or draw
85% chance1.11
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
54% chance1.73
BTTSBoth teams to score
53% chance1.77
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
78% chance1.28fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-1
11% chance8.93fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Rio Ave, full-time Rio Ave
40% chance2.49fair
Louletano vs Rio Ave prediction
Louletano vs Rio Ave prediction and best bet
Rio Ave are the clear favourite in the Louletano vs Rio Ave prediction, rated 62% to win this Taça de Portugal match on Saturday, 17 October 2026. Louletano sit at 16% and the draw at 23%.
Expected goals are 0.90 for Louletano and 1.97 for Rio Ave, a total of 2.87, which puts over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is rio Ave to win at 62%. At 1.56 with 1xBet the market prices it at 64%, against 62% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Rio Ave or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 85% chance, priced 1.11.
Louletano vs Rio Ave goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
On the goal lines Louletano vs Rio Ave reads 78% for over 1.5, 54% for over 2.5 and 32% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 46%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 54%; 1xBet pay 1.73.
Both teams to score is 53%: Louletano find the net in 59% of simulated matches and Rio Ave in 86%. Louletano keep a clean sheet 14% of the time and Rio Ave 41%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Louletano vs Rio Ave: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (11%) and 1-1 (10.1%).
With the top scoreline at 11.2%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Louletano vs Rio Ave; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Rio Ave, full-time Rio Ave is the top combination at 40%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 73%.
Every market for Louletano vs Rio Ave
The grid built from 0.90 and 1.97 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Louletano to win16%5.55
Draw23%3.88
Rio Ave to win62%1.56
Louletano, draw no bet20%fair 4.95
Rio Ave, draw no bet80%fair 1.25
Double chance
Louletano or draw38%2.28
Rio Ave or draw85%1.11
Louletano or Rio Ave (no draw)77%1.22
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals78%fair 1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.73
Over 3.5 goals32%fair 3.09
Over 4.5 goals16%fair 6.13
Under 1.5 goals22%fair 4.57
Under 2.5 goals46%2.02
Under 3.5 goals68%fair 1.48
BTTS
Both teams to score53%1.77
Not both teams to score47%1.94
Halves
First-half goal73%fair 1.38
Over 1.5 first-half goals37%fair 2.70
Second-half goal79%fair 1.26
Team goals
Louletano to score59%fair 1.69
Rio Ave to score86%fair 1.16
Louletano clean sheet14%fair 7.19
Rio Ave clean sheet41%fair 2.46
Louletano to win to nil13%fair 7.81
Rio Ave to win to nil37%fair 2.67
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
0-111.2%
0-211%
1-110.1%
1-29.9%
0-37.2%
1-36.5%
Half-time / full-time
Rio Ave / Rio Ave40.2%
Draw / Rio Ave19.1%
Draw / Draw12.7%
Louletano / Louletano9%
Draw / Louletano6.4%
Questions about Louletano vs Rio Ave
Louletano or Rio Ave: which side does the model back?
The model gives Rio Ave the best chance at 62%, with the draw at 23%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Louletano vs Rio Ave?
0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 54%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Louletano vs Rio Ave?
The BTTS yes line is rated 53%. Louletano find the net in 59% of simulated matches and Rio Ave in 86%.
When is Louletano vs Rio Ave and where is the result shown?
Louletano vs Rio Ave starts at 16:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.