NPFL predictions for every fixture

NPFL predictions for the coming round

NPFL predictions cover 11 of the next 11 fixtures. 0 of them already carry bookmaker prices. On an average fixture in this round the model makes the favourite a 56% chance, the draw 25%, over 2.5 goals 43% and BTTS 43%.

Expected goals average 2.40 a match, so the goal lines open below 2.5 for most of the round. Home sides are favoured in 11 of the 11 rated fixtures. 3 picks reach banker grade, which needs a chance of 80% or more.

The strongest NPFL pick of the round is ikorodu City to win in Ikorodu City v Inter Lagos on Sun 8 Nov, rated 71%.

No NPFL pick in this round clears the 3% edge bar against the best price, so the value page lists nothing from this competition today. The picks below stand on probability alone.

Each row on the board shows the three-way bar, the pick in green and the best price. The match pages print every market, the six most likely scores and the full NPFL odds table.

NPFL results and trends, last 60 days

The last 97 NPFL matches of the past 60 days produced 53 home wins, 33 draws and 11 away wins. That is a home win rate of 55% and a draw rate of 34%.

Goals averaged 2.32 a match, 1.56 for the home side and 0.76 for the visitors. Over 2.5 goals landed in 39% of matches and over 1.5 in 67%. Both teams scored in 46%, and at least one side kept a clean sheet in 54%.

The highest-scoring match in the window was Bendel Insurance 4-2 Kun Khalifat FC on Sun 13 Sep.

The model rates over 2.5 at 43% for the coming round against a 39% strike rate in these results, so the two readings agree.

The results block under the board lists each match with the final score, the half-time score and the pick that was frozen before kick-off, so the trend can be checked line by line.

How the NPFL tips have gone

64 NPFL tips have been settled in the last 60 days: 34 won and 30 lost, a hit rate of 53%. At a flat stake on the best price at freeze time the return is -48.5%.

The market that has landed most often in this competition is double chance, 7 of 8 tips. A hit rate is only printed once a market has five settled tips, so the early figures move quickly.

Every tip is frozen 40 hours before kick-off and graded from the final score. The day-by-day list sits on the results pages. 0 further NPFL tips are frozen and waiting for their matches.

A frozen tip cannot be edited or withdrawn, so this record reads the same way as the site-wide one: what was published, then what came in.

NPFL odds comparison

No NPFL fixture in the coming round is priced yet. Prices usually arrive two to three days before kick-off for a top division and the evening before for cups and lower divisions.

Until then the match pages show the fair price from the model, labelled as such. The edge column stays blank because there is no bookmaker line to measure it against.

Once prices land, each NPFL match page lists every bookmaker's 1X2, over/under 2.5 and both teams to score lines with the best in each column marked. Taking the best price on each outcome typically pays two to four points more than a single bookmaker's full line, and partner bookmakers carry a Bet button.