Liga MX
LeonHomeWDLWD
Mon 9 Nov
Guadalajara ChivasAwayDDWWW302644
Leon winDrawGuadalajara Chivas win
LeonHomeWDLWDGuadalajara ChivasAwayDDWWW- Kick-off Mon 9 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.91 1.30 : 1.61
- Favourite
- 44% Guadalajara Chivas
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 59% model chance
- Prices compared
- 4 in the odds table
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 22Bet | 3.08 | 3.50 | 2.13 | 1.68 | 2.09 | 1.57 | 2.26 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.98 | 3.45 | 2.22 | - | - | 1.52 | 2.30 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 3.08 | 3.50 | 2.13 | 1.68 | 2.09 | 1.57 | 2.26 | Bet |
 Melbet | - | - | - | 1.68 | 2.09 | 1.58 | 2.26 | Bet |
 Stake | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.16 | - | - | 1.55 | 2.25 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Guadalajara Chivas to win partner prices
Stake pay the best Leon price at 3.10, Stake lead the draw at 3.55 and BC.Game have Guadalajara Chivas longest at 2.22.
The best-price payout across the three results is 94.8%, several points better than any single book offers here.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.68 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.09 (22Bet); both teams to score yes pays 1.58 (Melbet) and no 2.30 (BC.Game).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
74%
Our prediction
Leon or Guadalajara Chivas (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
55% chance1.68
BTTSBoth teams to score
59% chance1.58
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
79% chance1.27fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance8.77fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Guadalajara Chivas, full-time Guadalajara Chivas
27% chance3.69fair
First halfFirst-half goal
73% chance1.37fair
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction
Our Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction and pick
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction for the Liga MX on Monday, 9 November 2026: the model makes Guadalajara Chivas marginally ahead at 44%, with the draw at 26% and Leon at 30%.
The goal expectancy is 2.91 in total, split 1.30 to Leon and 1.61 to Guadalajara Chivas. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 55% and both teams to score 59%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas is leon or Guadalajara Chivas (no draw), a 74% chance. At 1.27 with Stake the market prices it at 79%, against 74% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas.
Form check: Leon have won 2 of their last 5 with 9 scored and 8 conceded, Guadalajara Chivas 3 of 5 scoring 8 and conceding 4.
How many goals in Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 79%, over 2.5 at 55%, over 3.5 at 33%; under 2.5 is 45% and under 3.5 is 67%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 55%; 22Bet pay 1.68.
The chance of both teams scoring is 59%, built from Leon scoring in 73% of runs and Guadalajara Chivas in 80%; clean sheets come at 20% for Leon and 27% for Guadalajara Chivas.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 59%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-1 (8.8%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Guadalajara Chivas, full-time Guadalajara Chivas is the top combination at 27%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 73%.
Every market for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 30% / 26% / 44% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Leon to win30%3.10
Draw26%3.55
Guadalajara Chivas to win44%2.22
Leon, draw no bet41%fair 2.45
Guadalajara Chivas, draw no bet59%fair 1.69
Double chance
Leon or draw56%1.65
Guadalajara Chivas or draw70%1.35
Leon or Guadalajara Chivas (no draw)74%1.27
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals79%fair 1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.68
Over 3.5 goals33%fair 3.00
Over 4.5 goals17%fair 5.88
Under 1.5 goals21%fair 4.69
Under 2.5 goals45%2.09
Under 3.5 goals67%fair 1.50
BTTS
Both teams to score59%1.58
Not both teams to score41%2.30
Halves
First-half goal73%fair 1.37
Over 1.5 first-half goals38%fair 2.65
Second-half goal80%fair 1.25
Team goals
Leon to score73%fair 1.38
Guadalajara Chivas to score80%fair 1.25
Leon clean sheet20%fair 5.00
Guadalajara Chivas clean sheet27%fair 3.66
Leon to win to nil18%fair 5.43
Guadalajara Chivas to win to nil25%fair 3.98
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-111.4%
1-29.2%
0-18.8%
2-17.4%
1-07.1%
0-27.1%
Half-time / full-time
Guadalajara Chivas / Guadalajara Chivas27.1%
Leon / Leon17.9%
Draw / Guadalajara Chivas14.8%
Draw / Draw13.9%
Draw / Leon10.9%
Questions about Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
Leon or Guadalajara Chivas: which side does the model back?
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.4%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 55% backs the same picture with less variance.
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 59%. Leon find the net in 73% of simulated matches and Guadalajara Chivas in 80%.
When do Leon play Guadalajara Chivas?
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas starts at 02:00 UTC on Monday, 9 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.