Skip to the predictions
Live 6 UTC
Liga de Expansión MX Quarter-finals Monday, 9 November 2026 Kick-off
PiratasHomeWLWWD
Mon 9 Nov
CancúnAwayWDDWW
612217
Piratas winDrawCancún win
Kick-off
Mon 9 Nov
Expected goals
2.96
2.00 : 0.96
Favourite
61%
Piratas
Over 2.5 goals
57%
model chance
Both teams to score
55%
model chance
Prices compared
3
in the odds table

Best odds for Piratas vs Cancún

Bookmaker1X2Over 2.5Under 2.5BTTS yesBTTS no
22Bet1.513.905.231.672.101.752.03Bet
Betwinner1.513.905.231.672.101.752.03Bet
Melbet1.513.905.231.672.101.752.03Bet

Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.

Ad

Piratas to win partner prices

The top 1X2 prices for Piratas vs Cancún are 1.51 for Piratas at 22Bet, 3.90 for the draw at 22Bet and 5.23 for Cancún at 22Bet.

The best-price payout across the three results is 90.1%, several points better than any single book offers here.

On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.67 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.10 (22Bet); both teams to score yes pays 1.75 (Melbet) and no 2.03 (Melbet).

Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.

61%

Our prediction

Piratas to win
StrongExpected goals 2.00 : 0.96-7.4% against the best price
Double chancePiratas or draw
83% chance1.09
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
57% chance1.67
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.75
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
80% chance1.26fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
10% chance9.62fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Piratas, full-time Piratas
40% chance2.52fair

Piratas vs Cancún prediction

Our Piratas vs Cancún prediction and pick

Piratas host Cancún on Monday, 9 November 2026 in the Liga de Expansión MX, and the model has Piratas at 61%, the draw at 22% and Cancún at 17%: that is the Piratas vs Cancún prediction in one line.

Piratas are expected to score 2.00 and Cancún 0.96, so the total line is 2.96 goals; over 2.5 lands at 57% and BTTS at 55%.

One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.

Piratas to win is the main selection, rated 61%. At 1.51 with 22Bet the market prices it at 66%, against 61% from the model.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

For a safer line, piratas or draw covers 83% of outcomes at 1.09.

With the draw down at 22%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Over the last 5 matches Piratas stand at 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Cancún show 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 5.

Piratas vs Cancún goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

On the goal lines Piratas vs Cancún reads 80% for over 1.5, 57% for over 2.5 and 34% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 44%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 57%, best priced 1.67 at 22Bet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 55%, built from Piratas scoring in 87% of runs and Cancún in 62%; clean sheets come at 38% for Piratas and 14% for Cancún.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Piratas vs Cancún: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.4%) and 1-1 (9.9%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Piratas, full-time Piratas is the top combination at 40%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 74%.

All markets, Piratas vs Cancún

Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Piratas vs Cancún, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.

Match result

Piratas to win61%1.51
Draw22%3.90
Cancún to win17%5.23
Piratas, draw no bet79%fair 1.27
Cancún, draw no bet22%fair 4.65

Double chance

Piratas or draw83%1.09
Cancún or draw39%2.23
Piratas or Cancún (no draw)78%1.17

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals80%fair 1.26
Over 2.5 goals57%1.67
Over 3.5 goals34%fair 2.91
Over 4.5 goals18%fair 5.62
Under 1.5 goals21%fair 4.88
Under 2.5 goals44%2.10
Under 3.5 goals66%fair 1.52

BTTS

Both teams to score55%1.75
Not both teams to score45%2.03

Halves

First-half goal74%fair 1.36
Over 1.5 first-half goals38%fair 2.60
Second-half goal80%fair 1.24

Team goals

Piratas to score87%fair 1.16
Cancún to score62%fair 1.62
Piratas clean sheet38%fair 2.61
Cancún clean sheet14%fair 7.41
Piratas to win to nil35%fair 2.84
Cancún to win to nil13%fair 8.00

Odd or even

Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00

Most likely scores

1-010.4%
2-010.4%
1-19.9%
2-19.9%
3-06.9%
3-16.6%

Half-time / full-time

Piratas / Piratas39.7%
Draw / Piratas18.7%
Draw / Draw12.4%
Cancún / Cancún9.6%
Draw / Cancún6.6%

Questions about Piratas vs Cancún

Who will win Piratas vs Cancún?

The model gives Piratas the best chance at 61%, with the draw at 22%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.

Piratas vs Cancún correct score: what does the model say?

1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 10.4%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 57%) are the steadier way to back the same view.

Is BTTS likely in Piratas vs Cancún?

The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Piratas find the net in 87% of simulated matches and Cancún in 62%.

When is Piratas vs Cancún and where is the result shown?

Piratas vs Cancún starts at 01:00 UTC on Monday, 9 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.

Our pick, Piratas v CancúnPiratas to win, 61%
1.51Bet