State Cup
Hapoel SderotHomeWL
2:3Half-time 1:1
Maccabi Ahi NazarethAwayWLDWW632017
Hapoel Sderot winDrawMaccabi Ahi Nazareth win
Hapoel SderotHomeWLMaccabi Ahi NazarethAwayWLDWW- Kick-off Mon 26 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.13 2.12 : 1.01
- Favourite
- 63% Hapoel Sderot
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 56% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth odds comparison
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
63%
Our prediction
Hapoel Sderot to win
1.59fair
Double chanceHapoel Sderot or draw
83% chance1.21fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
60% chance1.66fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
56% chance1.79fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.22fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
10% chance10.10fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Hapoel Sderot, full-time Hapoel Sderot
41% chance2.44fair
Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth prediction
Our Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth prediction and pick
Hapoel Sderot are the clear favourite in the Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth prediction, rated 63% to win this State Cup match on Monday, 26 October 2026. Maccabi Ahi Nazareth sit at 17% and the draw at 20%.
The goal expectancy is 3.13 in total, split 2.12 to Hapoel Sderot and 1.01 to Maccabi Ahi Nazareth. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 60% and both teams to score 56%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is hapoel Sderot to win at 63%. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.
Hapoel Sderot or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 83% chance.
With the draw down at 20%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Goals forecast for Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 40% and under 3.5 62%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 82% and over 2.5 at 60%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Both teams to score is 56%: Hapoel Sderot find the net in 88% of simulated matches and Maccabi Ahi Nazareth in 64%. Hapoel Sderot keep a clean sheet 36% of the time and Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 12%.
Correct score: 2-1 leads at 9.9%, then 2-0 at 9.8% and 1-1 at 9.4%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Hapoel Sderot, full-time Hapoel Sderot leads at 41%. A goal before the break is rated 76%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 63% / 20% / 17% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Hapoel Sderot to win63%fair 1.59
Draw20%fair 4.95
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth to win17%fair 5.85
Hapoel Sderot, draw no bet79%fair 1.27
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth, draw no bet21%fair 4.67
Double chance
Hapoel Sderot or draw83%fair 1.21
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or draw37%fair 2.68
Hapoel Sderot or Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (no draw)80%fair 1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%fair 1.66
Over 3.5 goals38%fair 2.62
Over 4.5 goals21%fair 4.83
Under 1.5 goals18%fair 5.52
Under 2.5 goals40%fair 2.52
Under 3.5 goals62%fair 1.62
BTTS
Both teams to score56%fair 1.79
Not both teams to score44%fair 2.26
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.32
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.43
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
Hapoel Sderot to score88%fair 1.14
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth to score64%fair 1.57
Hapoel Sderot clean sheet36%fair 2.75
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth clean sheet12%fair 8.33
Hapoel Sderot to win to nil34%fair 2.99
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth to win to nil11%fair 9.09
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19.9%
2-09.8%
1-19.4%
1-09.3%
3-17%
3-06.9%
Half-time / full-time
Hapoel Sderot / Hapoel Sderot41%
Draw / Hapoel Sderot18.5%
Draw / Draw11.4%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth / Maccabi Ahi Nazareth9.4%
Draw / Maccabi Ahi Nazareth6.4%
Questions about Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Who is favourite in Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth?
The model gives Hapoel Sderot the best chance at 63%, with the draw at 20%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth correct score: what does the model say?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 60%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth?
The BTTS yes line is rated 56%. Hapoel Sderot find the net in 88% of simulated matches and Maccabi Ahi Nazareth in 64%.
When is Hapoel Sderot vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 15:30 UTC on Monday, 26 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.