Sagrada Esperança vs 1º de Maio prediction

Sagrada Esperança vs 1º de Maio prediction, who wins and at what price

Sagrada Esperança vs 1º de Maio prediction for the Girabola on Saturday, 24 October 2026: the model makes Sagrada Esperança marginally ahead at 41%, with the draw at 28% and 1º de Maio at 31%.

Expected goals are 1.27 for Sagrada Esperança and 1.07 for 1º de Maio, a total of 2.34, which puts over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 47%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Our main pick is sagrada Esperança or 1º de Maio (no draw) at 72%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.

Form check: Sagrada Esperança have won 2 of their last 5 with 7 scored and 5 conceded, 1º de Maio 2 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 8.

A low-scoring Sagrada Esperança vs 1º de Maio? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Under 2.5 goals is rated 59% and under 3.5 79%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 68% and over 2.5 at 41%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 59%.

Both teams to score is 47%: Sagrada Esperança find the net in 72% of simulated matches and 1º de Maio in 66%. Sagrada Esperança keep a clean sheet 34% of the time and 1º de Maio 28%.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 13.1%, then 1-0 at 12.2% and 0-1 at 10.3%.

With the top scoreline at 13.1%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Sagrada Esperança vs 1º de Maio; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Sagrada Esperança, full-time Sagrada Esperança leads at 24%. A goal before the break is rated 65%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.