USL Championship
Phoenix RisingHomeLWWDL
3:3Half-time 2:1
LexingtonAwayWDWDD442432
Phoenix Rising winDrawLexington win
Phoenix RisingHomeLWWDLLexingtonAwayWDWDD- Kick-off Sun 25 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.13 1.69 : 1.44
- Favourite
- 44% Phoenix Rising
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 63% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.50 | 2.94 | 1.58 | 2.18 | 1.50 | 2.38 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Phoenix Rising to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington are 2.08 for Phoenix Rising at 1xBet, 3.50 for the draw at 1xBet and 2.94 for Lexington at 1xBet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.58 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.18 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.50 (1xBet) and no 2.38 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
76%
Our prediction
Phoenix Rising or Lexington (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
60% chance1.58
BTTSBoth teams to score
63% chance1.50
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.22fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.43fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Phoenix Rising, full-time Phoenix Rising
27% chance3.76fair
First halfFirst-half goal
76% chance1.32fair
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington prediction
Our Phoenix Rising vs Lexington prediction and pick
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington prediction for the USL Championship on Sunday, 25 October 2026: the model makes Phoenix Rising marginally ahead at 44%, with the draw at 24% and Lexington at 33%.
Phoenix Rising are expected to score 1.69 and Lexington 1.44, so the total line is 3.13 goals; over 2.5 lands at 60% and BTTS at 63%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington is phoenix Rising or Lexington (no draw), a 76% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.22 at 1xBet, which implies 82%, so the model sits 6 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Phoenix Rising vs Lexington.
Phoenix Rising average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded across their last 5, Lexington 2.4 and 1.6 across 5.
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 82%, over 2.5 at 60%, over 3.5 at 38%; under 2.5 is 40% and under 3.5 is 62%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 60%; 1xBet pay 1.58.
Both teams to score is 63%: Phoenix Rising find the net in 82% of simulated matches and Lexington in 76%. Phoenix Rising keep a clean sheet 24% of the time and Lexington 19%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7.7%).
With the top scoreline at 10.6%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Phoenix Rising, full-time Phoenix Rising is the top combination at 27%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 76%.
Every market rated for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington
The grid built from 1.69 and 1.44 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Phoenix Rising to win44%2.08
Draw24%3.50
Lexington to win33%2.94
Phoenix Rising, draw no bet57%fair 1.75
Lexington, draw no bet43%fair 2.34
Double chance
Phoenix Rising or draw68%1.30
Lexington or draw57%1.60
Phoenix Rising or Lexington (no draw)76%1.22
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.58
Over 3.5 goals38%fair 2.62
Over 4.5 goals21%fair 4.83
Under 1.5 goals18%fair 5.52
Under 2.5 goals40%2.18
Under 3.5 goals62%fair 1.62
BTTS
Both teams to score63%1.50
Not both teams to score37%2.38
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.32
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.43
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
Phoenix Rising to score82%fair 1.23
Lexington to score76%fair 1.31
Phoenix Rising clean sheet24%fair 4.22
Lexington clean sheet19%fair 5.41
Phoenix Rising to win to nil22%fair 4.59
Lexington to win to nil17%fair 5.88
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.6%
2-19%
1-27.7%
1-07.4%
2-26.5%
0-16.3%
Half-time / full-time
Phoenix Rising / Phoenix Rising26.6%
Lexington / Lexington19.3%
Draw / Phoenix Rising14.1%
Draw / Draw12.8%
Draw / Lexington11.2%
Questions about Phoenix Rising vs Lexington
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
The model gives Phoenix Rising the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.6%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 60% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
The BTTS yes line is rated 63%. Phoenix Rising find the net in 82% of simulated matches and Lexington in 76%.
What time does Phoenix Rising vs Lexington kick off?
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington starts at 02:00 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.