Persha Liga
Metal KharkivHomeDDLLW
0:2Half-time 0:0
Yarud Mariupol'AwayDWWWW312643
Metal Kharkiv winDrawYarud Mariupol' win
Metal KharkivHomeDDLLWYarud Mariupol'AwayDWWWW- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.39 1.06 : 1.33
- Favourite
- 44% Yarud Mariupol'
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 49% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.06 | 3.15 | 2.19 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 1.91 | 1.78 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Yarud Mariupol' to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Metal Kharkiv price at 3.06, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.15 and 1xBet have Yarud Mariupol' longest at 2.19.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.8%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.15 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.60 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.91 (1xBet) and no 1.78 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
75%
Our prediction
Metal Kharkiv or Yarud Mariupol' (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
57% chance1.60
BTTSNot both teams to score
51% chance1.78
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
69% chance1.45fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.75fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Yarud Mariupol', full-time Yarud Mariupol'
25% chance3.97fair
First halfFirst-half goal
66% chance1.52fair
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction and best bet
Yarud Mariupol' are marginally ahead in the Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction, rated 44% to win this Persha Liga match on Friday, 23 October 2026. Metal Kharkiv sit at 31% and the draw at 26%.
The goal expectancy is 2.39 in total, split 1.06 to Metal Kharkiv and 1.33 to Yarud Mariupol'. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 43% and both teams to score 49%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' is metal Kharkiv or Yarud Mariupol' (no draw), a 75% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.28. That price implies 78%, 4 points over the model figure.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Metal Kharkiv average 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, Yarud Mariupol' 2.2 and 0.6 across 5.
A low-scoring Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 57% and under 3.5 78%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 69% and over 2.5 at 43%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 57%; 1xBet pay 1.60.
Both teams to score is 49%: Metal Kharkiv find the net in 65% of simulated matches and Yarud Mariupol' in 74%. Metal Kharkiv keep a clean sheet 26% of the time and Yarud Mariupol' 35%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.9%, then 0-1 at 12.2% and 1-0 at 9.7%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Yarud Mariupol', full-time Yarud Mariupol' leads at 25%. A goal before the break is rated 66%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol', all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Metal Kharkiv to win31%3.06
Draw26%3.15
Yarud Mariupol' to win44%2.19
Metal Kharkiv, draw no bet41%fair 2.43
Yarud Mariupol', draw no bet59%fair 1.70
Double chance
Metal Kharkiv or draw56%1.55
Yarud Mariupol' or draw69%1.29
Metal Kharkiv or Yarud Mariupol' (no draw)75%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 1.5 goals69%fair 1.45
Over 2.5 goals43%2.15
Over 3.5 goals22%fair 4.57
Over 4.5 goals10%fair 10.53
Under 1.5 goals31%fair 3.22
Under 2.5 goals57%1.60
Under 3.5 goals78%fair 1.28
BTTS
Both teams to score49%1.91
Not both teams to score51%1.78
Halves
First-half goal66%fair 1.52
Over 1.5 first-half goals29%fair 3.42
Second-half goal73%fair 1.37
Team goals
Metal Kharkiv to score65%fair 1.53
Yarud Mariupol' to score74%fair 1.36
Metal Kharkiv clean sheet26%fair 3.79
Yarud Mariupol' clean sheet35%fair 2.89
Metal Kharkiv to win to nil24%fair 4.12
Yarud Mariupol' to win to nil32%fair 3.13
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals50%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-112.9%
0-112.2%
1-09.7%
0-09.2%
1-28.6%
0-28.1%
Half-time / full-time
Yarud Mariupol' / Yarud Mariupol'25.2%
Draw / Draw17.6%
Metal Kharkiv / Metal Kharkiv16.7%
Draw / Yarud Mariupol'15.5%
Draw / Metal Kharkiv11.4%
Questions about Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'
Metal Kharkiv or Yarud Mariupol': which side does the model back?
The model gives Yarud Mariupol' the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 26%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 43%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
The BTTS yes line is rated 49%. Metal Kharkiv find the net in 65% of simulated matches and Yarud Mariupol' in 74%.
When do Metal Kharkiv play Yarud Mariupol'?
Kick-off is 10:00 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.