Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv prediction

Our Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv prediction and pick

The Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv prediction leans to Yarud Mariupol': 58% against 17% for Chernihiv, with 25% left for the draw, in the Persha Liga on Sunday, 1 November 2026.

Yarud Mariupol' are expected to score 1.68 and Chernihiv 0.80, so the total line is 2.48 goals; over 2.5 lands at 44% and BTTS at 47%.

One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.

The pick for Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv is yarud Mariupol' to win, a 58% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.63 at Melbet, which implies 61%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv.

Yarud Mariupol' or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 83% chance, priced 1.11.

Yarud Mariupol' average 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across their last 5, Chernihiv 1.6 and 1.8 across 5.

A low-scoring Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Under 2.5 goals is rated 56% and under 3.5 76%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 71% and over 2.5 at 44%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 56%, best priced 1.65 at Melbet.

Both teams to score is 47%: Yarud Mariupol' find the net in 81% of simulated matches and Chernihiv in 55%. Yarud Mariupol' keep a clean sheet 45% of the time and Chernihiv 19%.

Correct score: 1-0 leads at 14.1%, then 2-0 at 11.8% and 1-1 at 11.3%.

Even the leading scoreline holds only 14.1% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Yarud Mariupol', full-time Yarud Mariupol' leads at 37%. A goal before the break is rated 67%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.