Slovenia Cup
GradHomeL
0:3Half-time 0:2
TolminAwayW412534
Grad winDrawTolmin win
GradHomeLTolminAwayW- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.76 1.45 : 1.31
- Favourite
- 41% Grad
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 56% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Grad vs Tolmin
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
Bookmakers have not opened Grad vs Tolmin yet. The lines usually arrive within two days of kick-off, and the markets above show the fair price from the model until then.
75%
Our prediction
Grad or Tolmin (no draw)
1.34fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
52% chance1.92fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
56% chance1.79fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.31fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.33fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Grad, full-time Grad
24% chance4.15fair
First halfFirst-half goal
71% chance1.41fair
Grad vs Tolmin prediction
Grad vs Tolmin prediction, who wins and at what price
Grad vs Tolmin prediction for the Slovenia Cup on Saturday, 24 October 2026: the model calls it close, Grad 41%, draw 25%, Tolmin 34%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.
Grad are expected to score 1.45 and Tolmin 1.31, so the total line is 2.76 goals; over 2.5 lands at 52% and BTTS at 56%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Grad vs Tolmin is grad or Tolmin (no draw), a 75% chance. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
Grad vs Tolmin goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Under 2.5 goals is rated 48% and under 3.5 70%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 76% and over 2.5 at 52%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 52%.
Both teams to score is 56%: Grad find the net in 77% of simulated matches and Tolmin in 73%. Grad keep a clean sheet 27% of the time and Tolmin 24%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, followed by 1-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (8.7%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Grad, full-time Grad leads at 24%. A goal before the break is rated 71%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Grad vs Tolmin
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 41% / 25% / 34% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Grad to win41%fair 2.47
Draw25%fair 3.94
Tolmin to win34%fair 2.93
Grad, draw no bet54%fair 1.84
Tolmin, draw no bet46%fair 2.19
Double chance
Grad or draw66%fair 1.52
Tolmin or draw60%fair 1.68
Grad or Tolmin (no draw)75%fair 1.34
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.31
Over 2.5 goals52%fair 1.92
Over 3.5 goals30%fair 3.34
Over 4.5 goals15%fair 6.85
Under 1.5 goals24%fair 4.20
Under 2.5 goals48%fair 2.09
Under 3.5 goals70%fair 1.43
BTTS
Both teams to score56%fair 1.79
Not both teams to score44%fair 2.27
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.41
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.84
Second-half goal78%fair 1.28
Team goals
Grad to score77%fair 1.31
Tolmin to score73%fair 1.37
Grad clean sheet27%fair 3.70
Tolmin clean sheet24%fair 4.26
Grad to win to nil25%fair 4.03
Tolmin to win to nil22%fair 4.63
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112%
1-09.2%
2-18.7%
0-18.3%
1-27.9%
2-06.7%
Half-time / full-time
Grad / Grad24.1%
Tolmin / Tolmin19.8%
Draw / Draw15%
Draw / Grad14%
Draw / Tolmin12.1%
Questions about Grad vs Tolmin
Who is favourite in Grad vs Tolmin?
The model gives Grad the best chance at 41%, with the draw at 25%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Grad vs Tolmin?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 52%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Grad vs Tolmin?
The BTTS yes line is rated 56%. Grad find the net in 77% of simulated matches and Tolmin in 73%.
When is Grad vs Tolmin and where is the result shown?
Grad vs Tolmin starts at 13:00 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.