National Soccer League
PoliceHomeLDLLW
0:1Half-time 0:0
Al MerreikhAwayDLWWD263242
Police winDrawAl Merreikh win
PoliceHomeLDLLWAl MerreikhAwayDLWWD- Kick-off Wed 28 Oct
- Expected goals
- 1.95 0.83 : 1.12
- Favourite
- 42% Al Merreikh
- Over 2.5 goals
- 31% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 39% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Police vs Al Merreikh odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 22Bet | 3.46 | 2.90 | 2.19 | 2.75 | 1.39 | 2.30 | 1.59 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Al Merreikh to win partner prices
22Bet pay the best Police price at 3.46, 22Bet lead the draw at 2.90 and 22Bet have Al Merreikh longest at 2.19.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 91.7%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.75 (22Bet) and under 2.5 1.39 (22Bet); both teams to score yes pays 2.30 (22Bet) and no 1.59 (22Bet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
74%
Our prediction
Al Merreikh or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
70% chance1.39
BTTSNot both teams to score
61% chance1.59
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
58% chance1.72fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-1
16% chance6.29fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Al Merreikh, full-time Al Merreikh
24% chance4.13fair
First halfFirst-half goal
58% chance1.71fair
Police vs Al Merreikh prediction
Our Police vs Al Merreikh prediction and pick
Al Merreikh are marginally ahead in the Police vs Al Merreikh prediction, rated 42% to win this National Soccer League match on Wednesday, 28 October 2026. Police sit at 26% and the draw at 32%.
Expected goals are 0.83 for Police and 1.12 for Al Merreikh, a total of 1.95, which puts over 2.5 goals at 31% and both teams to score at 39%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is al Merreikh or draw at 74%. 22Bet offer the top price at 1.25. That price implies 80%, 6 points over the model figure.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
The draw is live at 32%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.
Form check: Police have won 1 of their last 5 with 1 scored and 4 conceded, Al Merreikh 2 of 5 scoring 3 and conceding 2.
A low-scoring Police vs Al Merreikh? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 58%, over 2.5 at 31%, over 3.5 at 13%; under 2.5 is 70% and under 3.5 is 87%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 70%, best priced 1.39 at 22Bet.
BTTS yes stands at 39%. Police score in 56% of simulations against a 44% clean sheet for Al Merreikh; Al Merreikh score in 67% while Police shut them out 33% of the time.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.
The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 15.9%, followed by 0-0 (14.2%) and 1-1 (13.2%).
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Al Merreikh, full-time Al Merreikh leads at 24%. A goal before the break is rated 58%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Police vs Al Merreikh
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Police vs Al Merreikh, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Police to win26%3.46
Draw32%2.90
Al Merreikh to win42%2.19
Police, draw no bet39%fair 2.58
Al Merreikh, draw no bet61%fair 1.63
Double chance
Police or draw58%1.58
Al Merreikh or draw74%1.25
Police or Al Merreikh (no draw)68%1.34
Goals
Over 0.5 goals86%fair 1.17
Over 1.5 goals58%fair 1.72
Over 2.5 goals31%2.75
Over 3.5 goals13%fair 7.46
Over 4.5 goals5%fair 20.83
Under 1.5 goals42%fair 2.38
Under 2.5 goals70%1.39
Under 3.5 goals87%fair 1.15
BTTS
Both teams to score39%2.30
Not both teams to score61%1.59
Halves
First-half goal58%fair 1.71
Over 1.5 first-half goals22%fair 4.57
Second-half goal66%fair 1.52
Team goals
Police to score56%fair 1.77
Al Merreikh to score67%fair 1.48
Police clean sheet33%fair 3.07
Al Merreikh clean sheet44%fair 2.29
Police to win to nil24%fair 4.12
Al Merreikh to win to nil39%fair 2.60
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.04
Even number of goals51%fair 1.96
Most likely scores
0-115.9%
0-014.2%
1-113.2%
1-011.8%
0-28.9%
1-27.4%
Half-time / full-time
Al Merreikh / Al Merreikh24.2%
Draw / Draw22.2%
Draw / Al Merreikh16.4%
Police / Police14.6%
Draw / Police11.2%
Questions about Police vs Al Merreikh
Police or Al Merreikh: which side does the model back?
The model gives Al Merreikh the best chance at 42%, with the draw at 32%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Police vs Al Merreikh?
0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 15.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 31%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Police vs Al Merreikh?
The BTTS yes line is rated 39%. Police find the net in 56% of simulated matches and Al Merreikh in 67%.
When do Police play Al Merreikh?
Kick-off is 13:00 UTC on Wednesday, 28 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.