Stars League
Al-GharafaHomeLDDLW
2:2Half-time 2:0
Al Ahli DohaAwayWLDW472231
Al-Gharafa winDrawAl Ahli Doha win
Al-GharafaHomeLDDLWAl Ahli DohaAwayWLDW- Kick-off Thu 22 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.56 1.98 : 1.58
- Favourite
- 47% Al-Gharafa
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 68% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.88 | 3.24 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.38 | 2.77 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Al-Gharafa to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha prediction: Al-Gharafa 1.85 (1xBet), draw 3.88 (1xBet), Al Ahli Doha 3.24 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.3%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.37 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.66 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.38 (1xBet) and no 2.77 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
78%
Our prediction
Al-Gharafa or Al Ahli Doha (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
69% chance1.37
BTTSBoth teams to score
68% chance1.38
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
87% chance1.15fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
9% chance11.24fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Al-Gharafa, full-time Al-Gharafa
30% chance3.38fair
First halfFirst-half goal
80% chance1.25fair
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha prediction
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha prediction, who wins and at what price
Al-Gharafa host Al Ahli Doha on Thursday, 22 October 2026 in the Stars League, and the model has Al-Gharafa at 47%, the draw at 22% and Al Ahli Doha at 31%: that is the Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 1.98 for Al-Gharafa and 1.58 for Al Ahli Doha, a total of 3.56, which puts over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 68%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha is al-Gharafa or Al Ahli Doha (no draw), a 78% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.18 at 1xBet, which implies 85%, so the model sits 7 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Form check: Al-Gharafa have won 1 of their last 5 with 6 scored and 6 conceded, Al Ahli Doha 2 of 4 scoring 9 and conceding 6.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
On the goal lines Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha reads 87% for over 1.5, 69% for over 2.5 and 48% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 31%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 69%, best priced 1.37 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 68%, built from Al-Gharafa scoring in 86% of runs and Al Ahli Doha in 79%; clean sheets come at 21% for Al-Gharafa and 14% for Al Ahli Doha.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 68%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 8.9%, then 2-1 at 8.8% and 1-2 at 7%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 8.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Al-Gharafa, full-time Al-Gharafa is the top combination at 30%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 80%.
Every market rated for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Al-Gharafa to win47%1.85
Draw22%3.88
Al Ahli Doha to win31%3.24
Al-Gharafa, draw no bet60%fair 1.66
Al Ahli Doha, draw no bet40%fair 2.52
Double chance
Al-Gharafa or draw69%1.25
Al Ahli Doha or draw53%1.77
Al-Gharafa or Al Ahli Doha (no draw)78%1.18
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals87%fair 1.15
Over 2.5 goals69%1.37
Over 3.5 goals48%fair 2.10
Over 4.5 goals29%fair 3.50
Under 1.5 goals13%fair 7.69
Under 2.5 goals31%2.66
Under 3.5 goals52%fair 1.91
BTTS
Both teams to score68%1.38
Not both teams to score32%2.77
Halves
First-half goal80%fair 1.25
Over 1.5 first-half goals48%fair 2.10
Second-half goal86%fair 1.16
Team goals
Al-Gharafa to score86%fair 1.16
Al Ahli Doha to score79%fair 1.26
Al-Gharafa clean sheet21%fair 4.85
Al Ahli Doha clean sheet14%fair 7.25
Al-Gharafa to win to nil19%fair 5.29
Al Ahli Doha to win to nil13%fair 7.87
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-18.9%
2-18.8%
1-27%
2-27%
3-15.8%
1-05.6%
Half-time / full-time
Al-Gharafa / Al-Gharafa29.6%
Al Ahli Doha / Al Ahli Doha18.4%
Draw / Al-Gharafa14.1%
Draw / Draw10.9%
Draw / Al Ahli Doha10.1%
Questions about Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha
Al-Gharafa or Al Ahli Doha: which side does the model back?
The model gives Al-Gharafa the best chance at 47%, with the draw at 22%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 8.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 69%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 68%. Al-Gharafa find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Al Ahli Doha in 79%.
What time does Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha kick off?
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha starts at 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.