I Liga
Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiHomeWWLLL
0:1Half-time 0:1
Stal MielecAwayLWLDW482428
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki winDrawStal Mielec win
Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiHomeWWLLLStal MielecAwayLWLDW- Kick-off Fri 30 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.21 1.84 : 1.37
- Favourite
- 48% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 64% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.50 | 2.95 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 1.46 | 2.50 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.34 | 3.43 | 2.86 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.22 | 3.50 | 2.78 | 1.55 | 2.32 | 1.44 | 2.48 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.34 | 3.43 | 2.86 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.34 | 3.43 | 2.86 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec prediction: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2.34 (Melbet), draw 3.50 (BC.Game), Stal Mielec 2.95 (1xBet).
The best-price payout across the three results is 95.1%, several points better than any single book offers here.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.60 (Melbet) and under 2.5 2.32 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.50 (22Bet) and no 2.50 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
76%
Our prediction
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Stal Mielec (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
62% chance1.60
BTTSBoth teams to score
64% chance1.50
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
83% chance1.20fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance9.80fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, full-time Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
30% chance3.31fair
First halfFirst-half goal
76% chance1.31fair
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec prediction
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec prediction and best bet
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are marginally ahead in the Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec prediction, rated 48% to win this I Liga match on Friday, 30 October 2026. Stal Mielec sit at 28% and the draw at 24%.
The goal expectancy is 3.21 in total, split 1.84 to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.37 to Stal Mielec. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 62% and both teams to score 64%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Stal Mielec (no draw) at 76%. The best price in our comparison is 1.29 at Melbet, which implies 78%, so the model sits 2 points below the market.
Over the last 5 matches Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki stand at 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Stal Mielec show 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
On the goal lines Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec reads 83% for over 1.5, 62% for over 2.5 and 40% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 38%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 62%; Melbet pay 1.60.
Both teams to score is 64%: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki find the net in 84% of simulated matches and Stal Mielec in 75%. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki keep a clean sheet 25% of the time and Stal Mielec 16%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 64%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.2%, followed by 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-0 (7.4%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, full-time Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki leads at 30%. A goal before the break is rated 76%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
The grid built from 1.84 and 1.37 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win48%2.34
Draw24%3.50
Stal Mielec to win28%2.95
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, draw no bet63%fair 1.58
Stal Mielec, draw no bet37%fair 2.72
Double chance
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw72%1.39
Stal Mielec or draw52%1.60
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Stal Mielec (no draw)76%1.29
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals83%fair 1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.60
Over 3.5 goals40%fair 2.50
Over 4.5 goals22%fair 4.52
Under 1.5 goals17%fair 5.88
Under 2.5 goals38%2.32
Under 3.5 goals60%fair 1.67
BTTS
Both teams to score64%1.50
Not both teams to score36%2.50
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.31
Over 1.5 first-half goals42%fair 2.36
Second-half goal83%fair 1.21
Team goals
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to score84%fair 1.19
Stal Mielec to score75%fair 1.34
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki clean sheet25%fair 3.94
Stal Mielec clean sheet16%fair 6.29
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win to nil23%fair 4.27
Stal Mielec to win to nil15%fair 6.85
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.2%
2-19.4%
1-07.4%
1-27%
2-06.8%
2-26.4%
Half-time / full-time
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki30.2%
Stal Mielec / Stal Mielec16.7%
Draw / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki15.1%
Draw / Draw12.2%
Draw / Stal Mielec9.9%
Questions about Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
Who is favourite in Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec?
The model gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the best chance at 48%, with the draw at 24%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 62%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec?
The BTTS yes line is rated 64%. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki find the net in 84% of simulated matches and Stal Mielec in 75%.
What time does Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec starts at 19:30 UTC on Friday, 30 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.