CONCACAF Central American Cup
CD MotaguaHomeWDWLW
0:0Half-time 0:0
LD AlajuelenseAwayWDWWD373825
CD Motagua winDrawLD Alajuelense win
CD MotaguaHomeWDWLWLD AlajuelenseAwayWDWWD- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.27 1.25 : 1.02
- Favourite
- 37% CD Motagua
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 48% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.04 | 3.10 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 1.91 | 1.77 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
CD Motagua to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense prediction: CD Motagua 2.19 (1xBet), draw 3.04 (1xBet), LD Alajuelense 3.10 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.2%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 2.20 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.57 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.91 (1xBet) and no 1.77 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
75%
Our prediction
CD Motagua or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
60% chance1.57
BTTSNot both teams to score
52% chance1.77
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
66% chance1.51fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.58fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time CD Motagua, full-time CD Motagua
24% chance4.13fair
First halfFirst-half goal
64% chance1.56fair
CD Motagua v LD Alajuelense head to head
0CD Motagua wins
0Draws
1LD Alajuelense wins
- 30 Oct 26LD Alajuelense2:1CD Motagua
1 meeting since coverage began, 3 goals in total: CD Motagua scored 1, LD Alajuelense scored 2.
CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense prediction
CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense prediction, who wins and at what price
CD Motagua are marginally ahead in the CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense prediction, rated 37% to win this CONCACAF Central American Cup match on Friday, 23 October 2026. LD Alajuelense sit at 25% and the draw at 38%.
Expected goals are 1.25 for CD Motagua and 1.02 for LD Alajuelense, a total of 2.27, which puts over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 48%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is cD Motagua or draw at 75%. The best price in our comparison is 1.27 at 1xBet, which implies 79%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
The draw is live at 38%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.
CD Motagua average 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded across their last 5, LD Alajuelense 1.2 and 0.6 across 5.
A low-scoring CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense reads 66% for over 1.5, 40% for over 2.5 and 20% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 60%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 60%, best priced 1.57 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 48%: CD Motagua find the net in 71% of simulated matches and LD Alajuelense in 64%. CD Motagua keep a clean sheet 36% of the time and LD Alajuelense 29%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense: 1-1 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.9%) and 0-1 (10.5%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time CD Motagua, full-time CD Motagua leads at 24%. A goal before the break is rated 64%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 37% / 38% / 25% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
CD Motagua to win37%2.19
Draw38%3.04
LD Alajuelense to win25%3.10
CD Motagua, draw no bet59%fair 1.68
LD Alajuelense, draw no bet41%fair 2.46
Double chance
CD Motagua or draw75%1.27
LD Alajuelense or draw63%1.53
CD Motagua or LD Alajuelense (no draw)63%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals90%fair 1.11
Over 1.5 goals66%fair 1.51
Over 2.5 goals40%2.20
Over 3.5 goals20%fair 5.13
Over 4.5 goals8%fair 12.50
Under 1.5 goals34%fair 2.96
Under 2.5 goals60%1.57
Under 3.5 goals81%fair 1.24
BTTS
Both teams to score48%1.91
Not both teams to score52%1.77
Halves
First-half goal64%fair 1.56
Over 1.5 first-half goals27%fair 3.68
Second-half goal71%fair 1.40
Team goals
CD Motagua to score71%fair 1.40
LD Alajuelense to score64%fair 1.56
CD Motagua clean sheet36%fair 2.77
LD Alajuelense clean sheet29%fair 3.48
CD Motagua to win to nil33%fair 3.01
LD Alajuelense to win to nil23%fair 4.27
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-113.2%
1-012.9%
0-110.5%
0-010.3%
2-18.2%
2-08.1%
Half-time / full-time
CD Motagua / CD Motagua24.2%
Draw / Draw18.8%
LD Alajuelense / LD Alajuelense16.9%
Draw / CD Motagua15.4%
Draw / LD Alajuelense11.8%
Questions about CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense
Who will win CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense?
The model gives CD Motagua the best chance at 37%, with the draw at 38%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 40%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in CD Motagua vs LD Alajuelense?
The BTTS yes line is rated 48%. CD Motagua find the net in 71% of simulated matches and LD Alajuelense in 64%.
When do CD Motagua play LD Alajuelense?
Kick-off is 01:00 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.