Liga Nacional
Estrella RojaHomeLLWDW
3:1Half-time 2:1
Atletico IndependienteAwayLDLDL592318
Estrella Roja winDrawAtletico Independiente win
Estrella RojaHomeLLWDWAtletico IndependienteAwayLDLDL- Kick-off Sat 31 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.93 1.93 : 1.00
- Favourite
- 59% Estrella Roja
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Best odds for Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.58 | 3.62 | 5.02 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.72 | 1.96 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.69 | 3.88 | 4.54 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 1.87 | 1.87 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.56 | 3.75 | 5.20 | 1.73 | 2.02 | 1.69 | 1.96 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.69 | 3.88 | 4.54 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 1.87 | 1.87 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.69 | 3.88 | 4.54 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 1.87 | 1.87 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Estrella Roja to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente prediction: Estrella Roja 1.69 (22Bet), draw 3.88 (22Bet), Atletico Independiente 5.20 (BC.Game).
The best-price payout across the three results is 96%, several points better than any single book offers here.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.81 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.02 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.87 (22Bet) and no 1.96 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
59%
Our prediction
Estrella Roja to win
Double chanceEstrella Roja or draw
82% chance1.18
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
56% chance1.81
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.87
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
79% chance1.27fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
10% chance9.71fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Estrella Roja, full-time Estrella Roja
38% chance2.65fair
Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente prediction
Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente prediction, who wins and at what price
Estrella Roja host Atletico Independiente on Saturday, 31 October 2026 in the Liga Nacional, and the model has Estrella Roja at 59%, the draw at 23% and Atletico Independiente at 18%: that is the Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente prediction in one line.
Estrella Roja are expected to score 1.93 and Atletico Independiente 1.00, so the total line is 2.93 goals; over 2.5 lands at 56% and BTTS at 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente is estrella Roja to win, a 59% chance. At 1.69 with 22Bet the market prices it at 59%, against 59% from the model.
For a safer line, estrella Roja or draw covers 82% of outcomes at 1.18.
Estrella Roja average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 5, Atletico Independiente 0.8 and 2.8 across 5.
How many goals in Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Under 2.5 goals is rated 45% and under 3.5 66%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 79% and over 2.5 at 56%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 56%, best priced 1.81 at 22Bet.
Both teams to score is 55%: Estrella Roja find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Atletico Independiente in 63%. Estrella Roja keep a clean sheet 37% of the time and Atletico Independiente 15%.
Correct score: 1-0 leads at 10.3%, then 1-1 at 10.3% and 2-0 at 9.9%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.3% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Estrella Roja, full-time Estrella Roja is the top combination at 38%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 73%.
All markets, Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente
The grid built from 1.93 and 1.00 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Estrella Roja to win59%1.69
Draw23%3.88
Atletico Independiente to win18%5.20
Estrella Roja, draw no bet77%fair 1.31
Atletico Independiente, draw no bet24%fair 4.26
Double chance
Estrella Roja or draw82%1.18
Atletico Independiente or draw41%2.18
Estrella Roja or Atletico Independiente (no draw)77%1.23
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals79%fair 1.27
Over 2.5 goals56%1.81
Over 3.5 goals34%fair 2.97
Over 4.5 goals17%fair 5.78
Under 1.5 goals21%fair 4.76
Under 2.5 goals45%2.02
Under 3.5 goals66%fair 1.51
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.87
Not both teams to score45%1.96
Halves
First-half goal73%fair 1.37
Over 1.5 first-half goals38%fair 2.63
Second-half goal80%fair 1.25
Team goals
Estrella Roja to score86%fair 1.17
Atletico Independiente to score63%fair 1.58
Estrella Roja clean sheet37%fair 2.72
Atletico Independiente clean sheet15%fair 6.90
Estrella Roja to win to nil34%fair 2.96
Atletico Independiente to win to nil13%fair 7.46
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-010.3%
1-110.3%
2-09.9%
2-19.9%
3-06.4%
3-16.4%
Half-time / full-time
Estrella Roja / Estrella Roja37.8%
Draw / Estrella Roja18.2%
Draw / Draw12.8%
Atletico Independiente / Atletico Independiente10.6%
Draw / Atletico Independiente7.2%
Questions about Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente
Estrella Roja or Atletico Independiente: which side does the model back?
The model gives Estrella Roja the best chance at 59%, with the draw at 23%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 10.3%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 56%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Estrella Roja find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Atletico Independiente in 63%.
What time does Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente kick off?
Kick-off is 01:00 UTC on Saturday, 31 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.