2. Bundesliga
Holstein KielHomeLDWDL
0:0Half-time 0:0
Hertha BSCAwayWDWWW362440
Holstein Kiel winDrawHertha BSC win
Holstein KielHomeLDWDLHertha BSCAwayWDWWW- Kick-off Fri 16 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.66 1.78 : 1.88
- Favourite
- 40% Hertha BSC
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 72% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.62 | 3.82 | 2.32 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.33 | 3.02 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Hertha BSC to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC are 2.62 for Holstein Kiel at 1xBet, 3.82 for the draw at 1xBet and 2.32 for Hertha BSC at 1xBet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 93.1%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.34 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.78 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.33 (1xBet) and no 3.02 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
76%
Our prediction
Holstein Kiel or Hertha BSC (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
70% chance1.34
BTTSBoth teams to score
72% chance1.33
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
88% chance1.14fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
9% chance11.63fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Hertha BSC, full-time Hertha BSC
25% chance3.95fair
First halfFirst-half goal
81% chance1.24fair
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC prediction
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC prediction, who wins and at what price
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC prediction for the 2. Bundesliga on Friday, 16 October 2026: the model calls it close, Holstein Kiel 36%, draw 24%, Hertha BSC 40%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.
Expected goals are 1.78 for Holstein Kiel and 1.88 for Hertha BSC, a total of 3.66, which puts over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 72%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is holstein Kiel or Hertha BSC (no draw) at 76%. At 1.23 with 1xBet the market prices it at 81%, against 76% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC.
Form check: Holstein Kiel have won 1 of their last 5 with 4 scored and 3 conceded, Hertha BSC 4 of 5 scoring 8 and conceding 1.
Goals forecast for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 88%, over 2.5 at 70%, over 3.5 at 50%; under 2.5 is 30% and under 3.5 is 50%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 70%; 1xBet pay 1.34.
BTTS yes stands at 72%. Holstein Kiel score in 83% of simulations against a 17% clean sheet for Hertha BSC; Hertha BSC score in 85% while Holstein Kiel shut them out 15% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 72%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC: 1-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%) and 2-1 (7.7%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 8.6% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Hertha BSC, full-time Hertha BSC leads at 25%. A goal before the break is rated 81%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Holstein Kiel to win36%2.62
Draw24%3.82
Hertha BSC to win40%2.32
Holstein Kiel, draw no bet47%fair 2.12
Hertha BSC, draw no bet53%fair 1.89
Double chance
Holstein Kiel or draw60%1.55
Hertha BSC or draw64%1.44
Holstein Kiel or Hertha BSC (no draw)76%1.23
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals88%fair 1.14
Over 2.5 goals70%1.34
Over 3.5 goals50%fair 2.01
Over 4.5 goals31%fair 3.28
Under 1.5 goals12%fair 8.33
Under 2.5 goals30%2.78
Under 3.5 goals50%fair 1.99
BTTS
Both teams to score72%1.33
Not both teams to score28%3.02
Halves
First-half goal81%fair 1.24
Over 1.5 first-half goals49%fair 2.04
Second-half goal87%fair 1.15
Team goals
Holstein Kiel to score83%fair 1.20
Hertha BSC to score85%fair 1.18
Holstein Kiel clean sheet15%fair 6.54
Hertha BSC clean sheet17%fair 5.92
Holstein Kiel to win to nil14%fair 7.14
Hertha BSC to win to nil16%fair 6.45
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-18.6%
1-28.1%
2-17.7%
2-27.2%
1-35.1%
0-14.8%
Half-time / full-time
Hertha BSC / Hertha BSC25.3%
Holstein Kiel / Holstein Kiel22.5%
Draw / Hertha BSC12.5%
Draw / Holstein Kiel11.5%
Draw / Draw10.7%
Questions about Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
Holstein Kiel or Hertha BSC: which side does the model back?
The model gives Hertha BSC the best chance at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 8.6%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 70% backs the same picture with less variance.
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 72%. Holstein Kiel find the net in 83% of simulated matches and Hertha BSC in 85%.
When do Holstein Kiel play Hertha BSC?
Kick-off is 16:30 UTC on Friday, 16 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.