Premyer Liqa
Safa BakuHomeLLLL
1:2Half-time 0:0
KapazAwayDWDWW322840
Safa Baku winDrawKapaz win
Safa BakuHomeLLLLKapazAwayDWDWW- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.50 1.16 : 1.34
- Favourite
- 41% Kapaz
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 51% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Safa Baku vs Kapaz
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.86 | 3.12 | 2.28 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.74 | 1.94 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Kapaz to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Safa Baku price at 2.86, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.12 and 1xBet have Kapaz longest at 2.28.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.2%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.95 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.73 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.74 (1xBet) and no 1.94 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
73%
Our prediction
Safa Baku or Kapaz (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
55% chance1.73
BTTSBoth teams to score
51% chance1.74
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
71% chance1.40fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.81fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Kapaz, full-time Kapaz
24% chance4.17fair
First halfFirst-half goal
68% chance1.48fair
Safa Baku vs Kapaz prediction
Safa Baku vs Kapaz prediction and best bet
Safa Baku host Kapaz on Saturday, 24 October 2026 in the Premyer Liqa, and the model has Kapaz at 41%, the draw at 28% and Safa Baku at 32%: that is the Safa Baku vs Kapaz prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 1.16 for Safa Baku and 1.34 for Kapaz, a total of 2.50, which puts over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 51%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Safa Baku vs Kapaz is safa Baku or Kapaz (no draw), a 73% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.27. That price implies 79%, 6 points over the model figure.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 4 matches Safa Baku stand at 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Kapaz show 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Safa Baku vs Kapaz
Under 2.5 goals is rated 55% and under 3.5 76%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 71% and over 2.5 at 45%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 55%; 1xBet pay 1.73.
The chance of both teams scoring is 51%, built from Safa Baku scoring in 69% of runs and Kapaz in 74%; clean sheets come at 26% for Safa Baku and 31% for Kapaz.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Safa Baku vs Kapaz: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-1 (11%) and 1-0 (9.5%).
With the top scoreline at 12.8%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Safa Baku vs Kapaz; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Kapaz, full-time Kapaz leads at 24%. A goal before the break is rated 68%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Safa Baku vs Kapaz
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Safa Baku vs Kapaz, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Safa Baku to win32%2.86
Draw28%3.12
Kapaz to win41%2.28
Safa Baku, draw no bet44%fair 2.27
Kapaz, draw no bet56%fair 1.79
Double chance
Safa Baku or draw59%1.49
Kapaz or draw68%1.32
Safa Baku or Kapaz (no draw)73%1.27
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals71%fair 1.40
Over 2.5 goals45%1.95
Over 3.5 goals24%fair 4.13
Over 4.5 goals11%fair 9.17
Under 1.5 goals29%fair 3.48
Under 2.5 goals55%1.73
Under 3.5 goals76%fair 1.32
BTTS
Both teams to score51%1.74
Not both teams to score49%1.94
Halves
First-half goal68%fair 1.48
Over 1.5 first-half goals31%fair 3.23
Second-half goal75%fair 1.34
Team goals
Safa Baku to score69%fair 1.46
Kapaz to score74%fair 1.36
Safa Baku clean sheet26%fair 3.82
Kapaz clean sheet31%fair 3.19
Safa Baku to win to nil24%fair 4.15
Kapaz to win to nil29%fair 3.47
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.8%
0-111%
1-09.5%
1-28.5%
0-08.2%
2-17.4%
Half-time / full-time
Kapaz / Kapaz24%
Safa Baku / Safa Baku18.4%
Draw / Draw16.8%
Draw / Kapaz14.7%
Draw / Safa Baku12%
Questions about Safa Baku vs Kapaz
Who is favourite in Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
The model gives Kapaz the best chance at 41%, with the draw at 28%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 45%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
The BTTS yes line is rated 51%. Safa Baku find the net in 69% of simulated matches and Kapaz in 74%.
When do Safa Baku play Kapaz?
Safa Baku vs Kapaz starts at 12:30 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.