Primera Nacional
AlmagroHomeWWLDL
1:1Half-time 0:0
Tristan SuarezAwayDDWDD153055
Almagro winDrawTristan Suarez win
AlmagroHomeWWLDLTristan SuarezAwayDDWDD- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 1.80 0.53 : 1.27
- Favourite
- 54% Tristan Suarez
- Over 2.5 goals
- 27% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 30% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 6.07 | 3.05 | 1.63 | 2.92 | 1.31 | 2.78 | 1.38 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Tristan Suarez to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Almagro vs Tristan Suarez prediction: Almagro 6.07 (1xBet), draw 3.05 (1xBet), Tristan Suarez 1.63 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.92 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.31 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.78 (1xBet) and no 1.38 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
54%
Our prediction
Tristan Suarez to win
Double chanceTristan Suarez or draw
85% chance1.06
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
73% chance1.31
BTTSNot both teams to score
70% chance1.38
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
54% chance1.86fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-1
21% chance4.76fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Tristan Suarez, full-time Tristan Suarez
33% chance3.07fair
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez prediction
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez prediction and best bet
The Almagro vs Tristan Suarez prediction leans to Tristan Suarez: 54% against 15% for Almagro, with 30% left for the draw, in the Primera Nacional on Saturday, 24 October 2026.
Almagro are expected to score 0.53 and Tristan Suarez 1.27, so the total line is 1.80 goals; over 2.5 lands at 27% and BTTS at 30%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Almagro vs Tristan Suarez is tristan Suarez to win, a 54% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.63 at 1xBet, which implies 61%, so the model sits 7 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Almagro vs Tristan Suarez.
Tristan Suarez or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 85% chance, priced 1.06.
A 30% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.
Form check: Almagro have won 2 of their last 5 with 7 scored and 7 conceded, Tristan Suarez 1 of 5 scoring 2 and conceding 1.
A low-scoring Almagro vs Tristan Suarez? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines Almagro vs Tristan Suarez reads 54% for over 1.5, 27% for over 2.5 and 11% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 73%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 73%; 1xBet pay 1.31.
BTTS yes stands at 30%. Almagro score in 41% of simulations against a 59% clean sheet for Tristan Suarez; Tristan Suarez score in 72% while Almagro shut them out 28% of the time.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 70%.
The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 21%, followed by 0-0 (16.5%) and 0-2 (13.3%).
Half-time / full-time: half-time Tristan Suarez, full-time Tristan Suarez is the top combination at 33%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 56%.
All markets, Almagro vs Tristan Suarez
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Almagro vs Tristan Suarez, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Almagro to win15%6.07
Draw30%3.05
Tristan Suarez to win54%1.63
Almagro, draw no bet22%fair 4.52
Tristan Suarez, draw no bet78%fair 1.28
Double chance
Almagro or draw46%2.03
Tristan Suarez or draw85%1.06
Almagro or Tristan Suarez (no draw)70%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals84%fair 1.20
Over 1.5 goals54%fair 1.86
Over 2.5 goals27%2.92
Over 3.5 goals11%fair 9.17
Over 4.5 goals4%fair 27.78
Under 1.5 goals46%fair 2.16
Under 2.5 goals73%1.31
Under 3.5 goals89%fair 1.12
BTTS
Both teams to score30%2.78
Not both teams to score70%1.38
Halves
First-half goal56%fair 1.80
Over 1.5 first-half goals20%fair 5.13
Second-half goal63%fair 1.59
Team goals
Almagro to score41%fair 2.43
Tristan Suarez to score72%fair 1.39
Almagro clean sheet28%fair 3.56
Tristan Suarez clean sheet59%fair 1.70
Almagro to win to nil14%fair 7.04
Tristan Suarez to win to nil50%fair 2.00
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.06
Even number of goals51%fair 1.95
Most likely scores
0-121%
0-016.5%
0-213.3%
1-111.1%
1-08.8%
1-27.1%
Half-time / full-time
Tristan Suarez / Tristan Suarez32.6%
Draw / Draw22.9%
Draw / Tristan Suarez20.8%
Almagro / Almagro8%
Draw / Almagro7%
Questions about Almagro vs Tristan Suarez
Almagro or Tristan Suarez: which side does the model back?
The model gives Tristan Suarez the best chance at 54%, with the draw at 30%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in Almagro vs Tristan Suarez?
0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 21%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 27% backs the same picture with less variance.
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 30%. Almagro find the net in 41% of simulated matches and Tristan Suarez in 72%.
When do Almagro play Tristan Suarez?
Kick-off is 18:30 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.