Wales Premier League
PenybontHomeWWLWW
Fri 6 Nov
Caernarfon TownAwayDLWWL372637
Penybont winDrawCaernarfon Town win
PenybontHomeWWLWWCaernarfon TownAwayDLWWL- Kick-off Fri 6 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.06 1.52 : 1.54
- Favourite
- 38% Caernarfon Town
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 63% model chance
- Prices compared
- 4 in the odds table
Best odds for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.40 | - | - | - | - | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.57 | 3.35 | 2.32 | 1.63 | 2.10 | 1.52 | 2.34 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.40 | 1.70 | 2.03 | 1.60 | 2.22 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.57 | 3.35 | 2.32 | 1.63 | 2.10 | 1.52 | 2.34 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Caernarfon Town to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town are 2.60 for Penybont at Betwinner, 3.60 for the draw at Betwinner and 2.40 for Caernarfon Town at Betwinner.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 92.7%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.70 (Betwinner) and under 2.5 2.10 (Melbet); both teams to score yes pays 1.60 (Betwinner) and no 2.34 (Melbet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
75%
Our prediction
Penybont or Caernarfon Town (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
59% chance1.70
BTTSBoth teams to score
63% chance1.60
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
81% chance1.23fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.09fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Caernarfon Town, full-time Caernarfon Town
23% chance4.35fair
First halfFirst-half goal
75% chance1.34fair
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town prediction
Our Penybont vs Caernarfon Town prediction and pick
Nothing separates the sides in the Penybont vs Caernarfon Town prediction for Friday, 6 November 2026: 37% home, 26% draw and 38% away in the Wales Premier League. A match this tight rewards the double chance and the goal markets more than a straight pick.
The goal expectancy is 3.06 in total, split 1.52 to Penybont and 1.54 to Caernarfon Town. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 59% and both teams to score 63%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is penybont or Caernarfon Town (no draw) at 75%. The best price in our comparison is 1.25 at Betwinner, which implies 80%, so the model sits 5 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 5 matches Penybont stand at 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Caernarfon Town show 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
On the goal lines Penybont vs Caernarfon Town reads 81% for over 1.5, 59% for over 2.5 and 37% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 42%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 59%; Betwinner pay 1.70.
Both teams to score is 63%: Penybont find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Caernarfon Town in 79%. Penybont keep a clean sheet 21% of the time and Caernarfon Town 22%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, followed by 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (8.3%).
With the top scoreline at 11%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Caernarfon Town, full-time Caernarfon Town leads at 23%. A goal before the break is rated 75%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 37% / 26% / 38% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Penybont to win37%2.60
Draw26%3.60
Caernarfon Town to win38%2.40
Penybont, draw no bet49%fair 2.03
Caernarfon Town, draw no bet51%fair 1.97
Double chance
Penybont or draw62%1.51
Caernarfon Town or draw63%1.44
Penybont or Caernarfon Town (no draw)75%1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals81%fair 1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.70
Over 3.5 goals37%fair 2.73
Over 4.5 goals20%fair 5.13
Under 1.5 goals19%fair 5.26
Under 2.5 goals42%2.10
Under 3.5 goals63%fair 1.58
BTTS
Both teams to score63%1.60
Not both teams to score37%2.34
Halves
First-half goal75%fair 1.34
Over 1.5 first-half goals40%fair 2.50
Second-half goal81%fair 1.23
Team goals
Penybont to score78%fair 1.28
Caernarfon Town to score79%fair 1.27
Penybont clean sheet21%fair 4.67
Caernarfon Town clean sheet22%fair 4.57
Penybont to win to nil20%fair 5.08
Caernarfon Town to win to nil20%fair 4.98
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-111%
1-28.5%
2-18.3%
0-17.2%
1-07.1%
2-26.4%
Half-time / full-time
Caernarfon Town / Caernarfon Town23%
Penybont / Penybont22.4%
Draw / Draw13.3%
Draw / Caernarfon Town12.8%
Draw / Penybont12.6%
Questions about Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
Who is favourite in Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
The model gives Caernarfon Town the best chance at 38%, with the draw at 26%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 59%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 63%. Penybont find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Caernarfon Town in 79%.
What time does Penybont vs Caernarfon Town kick off?
Kick-off is 19:45 UTC on Friday, 6 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.