USL Championship
Monterey BayHomeLWLLW
2:1Half-time 0:0
Las Vegas LightsAwayLWLLL382438
Monterey Bay winDrawLas Vegas Lights win
Monterey BayHomeLWLLWLas Vegas LightsAwayLWLLL- Kick-off Sun 25 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.35 1.67 : 1.68
- Favourite
- 38% Las Vegas Lights
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 66% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.65 | 2.36 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.39 | 2.73 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Las Vegas Lights to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Monterey Bay price at 2.38, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.65 and 1xBet have Las Vegas Lights longest at 2.36.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 89.5%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.42 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.49 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.39 (1xBet) and no 2.73 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
76%
Our prediction
Monterey Bay or Las Vegas Lights (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
65% chance1.42
BTTSBoth teams to score
66% chance1.39
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
85% chance1.18fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance10.20fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Las Vegas Lights, full-time Las Vegas Lights
23% chance4.27fair
First halfFirst-half goal
78% chance1.28fair
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights prediction
Our Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights prediction and pick
Nothing separates the sides in the Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights prediction for Sunday, 25 October 2026: 38% home, 24% draw and 38% away in the USL Championship. A match this tight rewards the double chance and the goal markets more than a straight pick.
Monterey Bay are expected to score 1.67 and Las Vegas Lights 1.68, so the total line is 3.35 goals; over 2.5 lands at 65% and BTTS at 66%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is monterey Bay or Las Vegas Lights (no draw) at 76%. The best price in our comparison is 1.18 at 1xBet, which implies 85%, so the model sits 9 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 5 matches Monterey Bay stand at 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Las Vegas Lights show 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats in 5.
Goals forecast for Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights reads 85% for over 1.5, 65% for over 2.5 and 43% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 35%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 65%, best priced 1.42 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 66%. Monterey Bay score in 81% of simulations against a 19% clean sheet for Las Vegas Lights; Las Vegas Lights score in 81% while Monterey Bay shut them out 19% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (8.3%) and 2-1 (8.2%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Las Vegas Lights, full-time Las Vegas Lights is the top combination at 23%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 78%.
Every market rated for Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 38% / 24% / 38% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Monterey Bay to win38%2.38
Draw24%3.65
Las Vegas Lights to win38%2.36
Monterey Bay, draw no bet50%fair 2.02
Las Vegas Lights, draw no bet50%fair 1.98
Double chance
Monterey Bay or draw62%1.44
Las Vegas Lights or draw62%1.43
Monterey Bay or Las Vegas Lights (no draw)76%1.18
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals85%fair 1.18
Over 2.5 goals65%1.42
Over 3.5 goals43%fair 2.32
Over 4.5 goals25%fair 4.05
Under 1.5 goals15%fair 6.54
Under 2.5 goals35%2.49
Under 3.5 goals57%fair 1.76
BTTS
Both teams to score66%1.39
Not both teams to score34%2.73
Halves
First-half goal78%fair 1.28
Over 1.5 first-half goals45%fair 2.25
Second-half goal84%fair 1.19
Team goals
Monterey Bay to score81%fair 1.23
Las Vegas Lights to score81%fair 1.23
Monterey Bay clean sheet19%fair 5.38
Las Vegas Lights clean sheet19%fair 5.32
Monterey Bay to win to nil17%fair 5.85
Las Vegas Lights to win to nil17%fair 5.78
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-19.8%
1-28.3%
2-18.2%
2-26.9%
0-15.9%
1-05.9%
Half-time / full-time
Las Vegas Lights / Las Vegas Lights23.4%
Monterey Bay / Monterey Bay23.2%
Draw / Las Vegas Lights12.4%
Draw / Monterey Bay12.3%
Draw / Draw11.9%
Questions about Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights
Who will win Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights?
The model gives Las Vegas Lights the best chance at 38%, with the draw at 24%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 65%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights?
The BTTS yes line is rated 66%. Monterey Bay find the net in 81% of simulated matches and Las Vegas Lights in 81%.
When is Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 02:00 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.