Copa Uruguay
Ferro CarrilHome
Thu 5 Nov
Club NacionalAwayWWWLW51085
Ferro Carril winDrawClub Nacional win
Ferro CarrilHomeClub NacionalAwayWWWLW- Kick-off Thu 5 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.36 0.54 : 2.82
- Favourite
- 85% Club Nacional
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 40% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 22Bet | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.13 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 2.32 | 1.53 | Bet |
 Stake | - | - | - | - | - | 2.20 | 1.57 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Club Nacional to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional are 12.00 for Ferro Carril at 22Bet, 6.50 for the draw at 22Bet and 1.13 for Club Nacional at 22Bet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 89.4%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.45 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.41 (22Bet); both teams to score yes pays 2.32 (22Bet) and no 1.57 (Stake).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
85%
Our prediction
Club Nacional to win
Double chanceClub Nacional or draw
95% chance-
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
64% chance1.45
BTTSNot both teams to score
60% chance1.57
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
85% chance1.18fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-2
14% chance7.25fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Club Nacional, full-time Club Nacional
61% chance1.64fair
Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional prediction
Our Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional prediction and pick
The Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional prediction leans to Club Nacional: 85% against 5% for Ferro Carril, with 10% left for the draw, in the Copa Uruguay on Thursday, 5 November 2026.
Ferro Carril are expected to score 0.54 and Club Nacional 2.82, so the total line is 3.36 goals; over 2.5 lands at 64% and BTTS at 40%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional is club Nacional to win, a 85% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.13 at 22Bet, which implies 88%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional.
Club Nacional or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 95% chance, priced -.
The draw sits at only 10%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 85%, over 2.5 at 64%, over 3.5 at 43%; under 2.5 is 36% and under 3.5 is 57%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 64%; 22Bet pay 1.45.
Both teams to score is 40%: Ferro Carril find the net in 42% of simulated matches and Club Nacional in 94%. Ferro Carril keep a clean sheet 6% of the time and Club Nacional 58%.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.
The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 13.8%, followed by 0-3 (13%) and 0-1 (9.8%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Club Nacional, full-time Club Nacional leads at 61%. A goal before the break is rated 78%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Ferro Carril to win5%12.00
Draw10%6.50
Club Nacional to win85%1.13
Ferro Carril, draw no bet6%fair 17.54
Club Nacional, draw no bet94%fair 1.06
Double chance
Ferro Carril or draw16%4.22
Club Nacional or draw95%-
Ferro Carril or Club Nacional (no draw)90%1.04
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals85%fair 1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.45
Over 3.5 goals43%fair 2.31
Over 4.5 goals25%fair 4.03
Under 1.5 goals15%fair 6.58
Under 2.5 goals36%2.41
Under 3.5 goals57%fair 1.76
BTTS
Both teams to score40%2.32
Not both teams to score60%1.57
Halves
First-half goal78%fair 1.28
Over 1.5 first-half goals45%fair 2.24
Second-half goal84%fair 1.19
Team goals
Ferro Carril to score42%fair 2.40
Club Nacional to score94%fair 1.06
Ferro Carril clean sheet6%fair 16.67
Club Nacional clean sheet58%fair 1.72
Ferro Carril to win to nil5%fair 21.28
Club Nacional to win to nil54%fair 1.87
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
0-213.8%
0-313%
0-19.8%
0-49.2%
1-27.5%
1-37%
Half-time / full-time
Club Nacional / Club Nacional61.1%
Draw / Club Nacional20.4%
Draw / Draw7%
Ferro Carril / Club Nacional2.5%
Ferro Carril / Ferro Carril2.4%
Questions about Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional
Ferro Carril or Club Nacional: which side does the model back?
The model gives Club Nacional the best chance at 85%, with the draw at 10%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional correct score: what does the model say?
0-2 is the most likely scoreline at 13.8%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 64% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional?
The BTTS yes line is rated 40%. Ferro Carril find the net in 42% of simulated matches and Club Nacional in 94%.
When is Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional and where is the result shown?
Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional starts at 00:00 UTC on Thursday, 5 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.