Türkiye Kupası
SakaryasporHomeWL
2:3Half-time 0:1
Bursa YıldırımsporAwayWW662014
Sakaryaspor winDrawBursa Yıldırımspor win
SakaryasporHomeWLBursa YıldırımsporAwayWW- Kick-off Wed 28 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.10 2.18 : 0.92
- Favourite
- 66% Sakaryaspor
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 54% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.25 | 6.28 | 1.60 | 2.23 | 1.72 | 2.01 | Bet |
 Melbet | - | - | - | 1.76 | 2.00 | - | - | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Sakaryaspor to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor prediction: Sakaryaspor 1.46 (1xBet), draw 4.25 (1xBet), Bursa Yıldırımspor 6.28 (1xBet).
The best-price payout across the three results is 92.6%, several points better than any single book offers here.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.76 (Melbet) and under 2.5 2.23 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.72 (1xBet) and no 2.01 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
66%
Our prediction
Sakaryaspor to win
Double chanceSakaryaspor or draw
86% chance1.09
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
59% chance1.76
BTTSBoth teams to score
54% chance1.72
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.23fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-0
11% chance9.35fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Sakaryaspor, full-time Sakaryaspor
44% chance2.29fair
Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor prediction
Our Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor prediction and pick
Sakaryaspor host Bursa Yıldırımspor on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 in the Türkiye Kupası, and the model has Sakaryaspor at 66%, the draw at 20% and Bursa Yıldırımspor at 14%: that is the Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 2.18 for Sakaryaspor and 0.92 for Bursa Yıldırımspor, a total of 3.10, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 54%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Sakaryaspor to win is the main selection, rated 66%. At 1.46 with 1xBet the market prices it at 68%, against 66% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Sakaryaspor or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 86% chance, priced 1.09.
The draw sits at only 20%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 82%, over 2.5 at 59%, over 3.5 at 38%; under 2.5 is 41% and under 3.5 is 63%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 59%; Melbet pay 1.76.
BTTS yes stands at 54%. Sakaryaspor score in 89% of simulations against a 11% clean sheet for Bursa Yıldırımspor; Bursa Yıldırımspor score in 60% while Sakaryaspor shut them out 40% of the time.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.8%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.7% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Sakaryaspor, full-time Sakaryaspor leads at 44%. A goal before the break is rated 75%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor
The grid built from 2.18 and 0.92 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Sakaryaspor to win66%1.46
Draw20%4.25
Bursa Yıldırımspor to win14%6.28
Sakaryaspor, draw no bet82%fair 1.21
Bursa Yıldırımspor, draw no bet18%fair 5.68
Double chance
Sakaryaspor or draw86%1.09
Bursa Yıldırımspor or draw34%2.53
Sakaryaspor or Bursa Yıldırımspor (no draw)80%1.18
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.76
Over 3.5 goals38%fair 2.67
Over 4.5 goals20%fair 4.95
Under 1.5 goals19%fair 5.41
Under 2.5 goals41%2.23
Under 3.5 goals63%fair 1.60
BTTS
Both teams to score54%1.72
Not both teams to score46%2.01
Halves
First-half goal75%fair 1.33
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.46
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
Sakaryaspor to score89%fair 1.13
Bursa Yıldırımspor to score60%fair 1.66
Sakaryaspor clean sheet40%fair 2.51
Bursa Yıldırımspor clean sheet11%fair 8.85
Sakaryaspor to win to nil37%fair 2.72
Bursa Yıldırımspor to win to nil10%fair 9.62
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-010.7%
2-19.8%
1-09.8%
1-19%
3-07.8%
3-17.2%
Half-time / full-time
Sakaryaspor / Sakaryaspor43.7%
Draw / Sakaryaspor19.2%
Draw / Draw11.1%
Bursa Yıldırımspor / Bursa Yıldırımspor8%
Draw / Bursa Yıldırımspor5.6%
Questions about Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor
Who is favourite in Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor?
The model gives Sakaryaspor the best chance at 66%, with the draw at 20%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor?
2-0 is the most likely scoreline at 10.7%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 59%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 54%. Sakaryaspor find the net in 89% of simulated matches and Bursa Yıldırımspor in 60%.
When is Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor and where is the result shown?
Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor starts at 15:00 UTC on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.