Schweizer Cup
FC WinterthurHomeWLLWW
0:1Half-time 0:0
FC LuzernAwayWLWLD301951
FC Winterthur winDrawFC Luzern win
FC WinterthurHomeWLLWWFC LuzernAwayWLWLD- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.49 1.47 : 2.02
- Favourite
- 51% FC Luzern
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 68% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.30 | 4.45 | 1.81 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.73 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
FC Luzern to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern are 3.30 for FC Winterthur at 1xBet, 4.45 for the draw at 1xBet and 1.81 for FC Luzern at 1xBet.
The best-price payout across the three results is 92.6%, several points better than any single book offers here.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.36 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.70 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.40 (1xBet) and no 2.73 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
51%
Our prediction
FC Luzern to win
Double chanceFC Winterthur or FC Luzern (no draw)
81% chance1.17
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
67% chance1.36
BTTSBoth teams to score
68% chance1.40
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
86% chance1.16fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
9% chance10.99fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time FC Luzern, full-time FC Luzern
32% chance3.13fair
FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern prediction
FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern prediction and best bet
FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern prediction for the Schweizer Cup on Saturday, 17 October 2026: the model makes FC Luzern a narrow favourite at 51%, with the draw at 19% and FC Winterthur at 30%.
Expected goals are 1.47 for FC Winterthur and 2.02 for FC Luzern, a total of 3.49, which puts over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 68%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern is fC Luzern to win, a 51% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.81. That price implies 55%, 4 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern.
FC Winterthur or FC Luzern (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 81% chance, priced 1.17.
The draw sits at only 19%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Over the last 5 matches FC Winterthur stand at 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; FC Luzern show 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 86%, over 2.5 at 67%, over 3.5 at 46%; under 2.5 is 33% and under 3.5 is 54%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 67%; 1xBet pay 1.36.
The chance of both teams scoring is 68%, built from FC Winterthur scoring in 77% of runs and FC Luzern in 87%; clean sheets come at 13% for FC Winterthur and 23% for FC Luzern.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 68%.
Correct score: 1-2 leads at 9.1%, then 1-1 at 9.1% and 2-2 at 6.7%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time FC Luzern, full-time FC Luzern leads at 32%. A goal before the break is rated 79%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 30% / 19% / 51% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
FC Winterthur to win30%3.30
Draw19%4.45
FC Luzern to win51%1.81
FC Winterthur, draw no bet37%fair 2.74
FC Luzern, draw no bet64%fair 1.57
Double chance
FC Winterthur or draw49%1.89
FC Luzern or draw70%1.29
FC Winterthur or FC Luzern (no draw)81%1.17
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals86%fair 1.16
Over 2.5 goals67%1.36
Over 3.5 goals46%fair 2.17
Over 4.5 goals27%fair 3.66
Under 1.5 goals14%fair 7.30
Under 2.5 goals33%2.70
Under 3.5 goals54%fair 1.86
BTTS
Both teams to score68%1.40
Not both teams to score32%2.73
Halves
First-half goal79%fair 1.26
Over 1.5 first-half goals47%fair 2.15
Second-half goal85%fair 1.17
Team goals
FC Winterthur to score77%fair 1.30
FC Luzern to score87%fair 1.15
FC Winterthur clean sheet13%fair 7.52
FC Luzern clean sheet23%fair 4.35
FC Winterthur to win to nil12%fair 8.20
FC Luzern to win to nil21%fair 4.72
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-29.1%
1-19.1%
2-26.7%
2-16.7%
0-26.2%
0-16.2%
Half-time / full-time
FC Luzern / FC Luzern31.9%
FC Winterthur / FC Winterthur16.4%
Draw / FC Luzern15%
Draw / Draw11%
Draw / FC Winterthur9.3%
Questions about FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern
FC Winterthur or FC Luzern: which side does the model back?
The model gives FC Luzern the best chance at 51%, with the draw at 19%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What is the correct score prediction for FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 9.1%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 67% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern?
The BTTS yes line is rated 68%. FC Winterthur find the net in 77% of simulated matches and FC Luzern in 87%.
When is FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern and where is the result shown?
FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern starts at 16:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.