Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Real MurciaHomeLWDLW
Sun 8 Nov
AlgecirasAwayWWLWW522622
Real Murcia winDrawAlgeciras win
Real MurciaHomeLWDLWAlgecirasAwayWWLWW- Kick-off Sun 8 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.43 1.53 : 0.90
- Favourite
- 52% Real Murcia
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 46% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Real Murcia vs Algeciras
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
52%
Our prediction
Real Murcia to win
1.93fair
Double chanceReal Murcia or draw
78% chance1.29fair
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
56% chance1.77fair
BTTSNot both teams to score
54% chance1.86fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
70% chance1.43fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
14% chance7.41fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Real Murcia, full-time Real Murcia
32% chance3.15fair
Real Murcia vs Algeciras prediction
Our Real Murcia vs Algeciras prediction and pick
Real Murcia vs Algeciras prediction for the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, 8 November 2026: the model makes Real Murcia a narrow favourite at 52%, with the draw at 26% and Algeciras at 22%.
Expected goals are 1.53 for Real Murcia and 0.90 for Algeciras, a total of 2.43, which puts over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 46%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Real Murcia to win is the main selection, rated 52%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
For a safer line, real Murcia or draw covers 78% of outcomes.
Over the last 5 matches Real Murcia stand at 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Algeciras show 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats in 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Real Murcia vs Algeciras
On the goal lines Real Murcia vs Algeciras reads 70% for over 1.5, 44% for over 2.5 and 23% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 56%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 56%.
BTTS yes stands at 46%. Real Murcia score in 78% of simulations against a 22% clean sheet for Algeciras; Algeciras score in 59% while Real Murcia shut them out 41% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13.5%, followed by 1-1 (12.1%) and 2-0 (10.3%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Real Murcia, full-time Real Murcia is the top combination at 32%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 67%.
All markets, Real Murcia vs Algeciras
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 52% / 26% / 22% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Real Murcia to win52%fair 1.93
Draw26%fair 3.86
Algeciras to win22%fair 4.50
Real Murcia, draw no bet70%fair 1.43
Algeciras, draw no bet30%fair 3.33
Double chance
Real Murcia or draw78%fair 1.29
Algeciras or draw48%fair 2.08
Real Murcia or Algeciras (no draw)74%fair 1.35
Goals
Over 0.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 1.5 goals70%fair 1.43
Over 2.5 goals44%fair 2.29
Over 3.5 goals23%fair 4.39
Over 4.5 goals10%fair 10.00
Under 1.5 goals30%fair 3.31
Under 2.5 goals56%fair 1.77
Under 3.5 goals77%fair 1.30
BTTS
Both teams to score46%fair 2.16
Not both teams to score54%fair 1.86
Halves
First-half goal67%fair 1.50
Over 1.5 first-half goals30%fair 3.34
Second-half goal74%fair 1.36
Team goals
Real Murcia to score78%fair 1.28
Algeciras to score59%fair 1.69
Real Murcia clean sheet41%fair 2.46
Algeciras clean sheet22%fair 4.61
Real Murcia to win to nil37%fair 2.67
Algeciras to win to nil20%fair 5.03
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals50%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-013.5%
1-112.1%
2-010.3%
2-19.3%
0-08.8%
0-17.9%
Half-time / full-time
Real Murcia / Real Murcia31.7%
Draw / Real Murcia18%
Draw / Draw16.7%
Algeciras / Algeciras12.1%
Draw / Algeciras8.8%
Questions about Real Murcia vs Algeciras
Real Murcia or Algeciras: which side does the model back?
The model gives Real Murcia the best chance at 52%, with the draw at 26%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What is the correct score prediction for Real Murcia vs Algeciras?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13.5%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 44% backs the same picture with less variance.
Real Murcia vs Algeciras both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 46%. Real Murcia find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Algeciras in 59%.
What time does Real Murcia vs Algeciras kick off?
Real Murcia vs Algeciras starts at 19:30 UTC on Sunday, 8 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.