Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje prediction

Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje prediction and best bet

Shkendija host Vardar Skopje on Saturday, 24 October 2026 in the Macedonia First League, and the model has Shkendija at 59%, the draw at 22% and Vardar Skopje at 20%: that is the Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje prediction in one line.

Shkendija are expected to score 1.93 and Vardar Skopje 1.03, so the total line is 2.96 goals; over 2.5 lands at 57% and BTTS at 55%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje is shkendija to win, a 59% chance. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.

Shkendija or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 80% chance.

With the draw down at 22%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Form check: Shkendija have won 3 of their last 5 with 10 scored and 4 conceded, Vardar Skopje 3 of 4 scoring 5 and conceding 1.

Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

Under 2.5 goals is rated 43% and under 3.5 66%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 80% and over 2.5 at 57%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 57%.

Both teams to score is 55%: Shkendija find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Vardar Skopje in 64%. Shkendija keep a clean sheet 36% of the time and Vardar Skopje 15%.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.3%, followed by 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.9%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Shkendija, full-time Shkendija is the top combination at 37%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 74%.