J2 League
Albirex NiigataHomeDLWWL
2:1Half-time 1:0
Sagan TosuAwayWLWLL282844
Albirex Niigata winDrawSagan Tosu win
Albirex NiigataHomeDLWWLSagan TosuAwayWLWLL- Kick-off Wed 21 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.51 1.08 : 1.43
- Favourite
- 44% Sagan Tosu
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 50% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.23 | 3.12 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 1.63 | 1.85 | 1.84 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Sagan Tosu to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu prediction: Albirex Niigata 3.23 (1xBet), draw 3.12 (1xBet), Sagan Tosu 2.10 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 2.10 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.63 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.85 (1xBet) and no 1.84 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
72%
Our prediction
Albirex Niigata or Sagan Tosu (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
54% chance1.63
BTTSBoth teams to score
50% chance1.85
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
72% chance1.40fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.94fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Sagan Tosu, full-time Sagan Tosu
27% chance3.72fair
First halfFirst-half goal
68% chance1.48fair
Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu prediction
Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu prediction, who wins and at what price
Sagan Tosu are marginally ahead in the Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu prediction, rated 44% to win this J2 League match on Wednesday, 21 October 2026. Albirex Niigata sit at 28% and the draw at 28%.
Albirex Niigata are expected to score 1.08 and Sagan Tosu 1.43, so the total line is 2.51 goals; over 2.5 lands at 46% and BTTS at 50%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Albirex Niigata or Sagan Tosu (no draw) is the main selection, rated 72%. At 1.27 with 1xBet the market prices it at 79%, against 72% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Form check: Albirex Niigata have won 2 of their last 5 with 8 scored and 11 conceded, Sagan Tosu 2 of 5 scoring 5 and conceding 7.
Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
On the goal lines Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu reads 72% for over 1.5, 46% for over 2.5 and 25% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 54%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 54%, best priced 1.63 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 50%: Albirex Niigata find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Sagan Tosu in 76%. Albirex Niigata keep a clean sheet 24% of the time and Sagan Tosu 34%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu: 1-1 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.6%) and 1-2 (9%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.6% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Sagan Tosu, full-time Sagan Tosu is the top combination at 27%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 68%.
All markets, Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 28% / 28% / 44% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Albirex Niigata to win28%3.23
Draw28%3.12
Sagan Tosu to win44%2.10
Albirex Niigata, draw no bet39%fair 2.58
Sagan Tosu, draw no bet61%fair 1.63
Double chance
Albirex Niigata or draw56%1.59
Sagan Tosu or draw72%1.26
Albirex Niigata or Sagan Tosu (no draw)72%1.27
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals72%fair 1.40
Over 2.5 goals46%2.10
Over 3.5 goals25%fair 4.08
Over 4.5 goals11%fair 9.09
Under 1.5 goals29%fair 3.51
Under 2.5 goals54%1.63
Under 3.5 goals76%fair 1.32
BTTS
Both teams to score50%1.85
Not both teams to score50%1.84
Halves
First-half goal68%fair 1.48
Over 1.5 first-half goals31%fair 3.21
Second-half goal75%fair 1.34
Team goals
Albirex Niigata to score66%fair 1.52
Sagan Tosu to score76%fair 1.31
Albirex Niigata clean sheet24%fair 4.18
Sagan Tosu clean sheet34%fair 2.94
Albirex Niigata to win to nil22%fair 4.55
Sagan Tosu to win to nil31%fair 3.21
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.6%
0-111.6%
1-29%
1-08.8%
0-28.3%
0-08.1%
Half-time / full-time
Sagan Tosu / Sagan Tosu26.9%
Draw / Draw16.6%
Albirex Niigata / Albirex Niigata16.1%
Draw / Sagan Tosu15.8%
Draw / Albirex Niigata10.8%
Questions about Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu
Who is favourite in Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
The model gives Sagan Tosu the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 28%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.6%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 46%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
The BTTS yes line is rated 50%. Albirex Niigata find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Sagan Tosu in 76%.
When do Albirex Niigata play Sagan Tosu?
Kick-off is 10:00 UTC on Wednesday, 21 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.