Serie C - Girone A
NovaraHomeLWLDL
1:0Half-time 1:0
Desenzano CalvinaAwayDWWLL423127
Novara winDrawDesenzano Calvina win
NovaraHomeLWLDLDesenzano CalvinaAwayDWWLL- Kick-off Mon 2 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.37 1.33 : 1.04
- Favourite
- 42% Novara
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 50% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Novara vs Desenzano Calvina odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.06 | 2.93 | 3.54 | 2.05 | 1.66 | 1.81 | 1.86 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.34 | 3.12 | 3.12 | 2.21 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.87 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.22 | 3.00 | 3.15 | 2.12 | 1.66 | 1.80 | 1.84 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.34 | 3.12 | 3.12 | 2.21 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.87 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.21 | 2.88 | 3.24 | 2.10 | 1.63 | 1.82 | 1.85 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Novara to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Novara vs Desenzano Calvina prediction: Novara 2.34 (Betwinner), draw 3.12 (Betwinner), Desenzano Calvina 3.54 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 97%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 2.21 (Betwinner) and under 2.5 1.67 (Betwinner); both teams to score yes pays 1.87 (Betwinner) and no 1.87 (Betwinner).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
73%
Our prediction
Novara or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
58% chance1.67
BTTSNot both teams to score
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
69% chance1.46fairLost
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.75fairLost
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Novara, full-time Novara
26% chance3.92fairWon
First halfFirst-half goal
66% chance1.52fairWon
Novara vs Desenzano Calvina odds movement
Novara win2.34+0.22
Draw3.12-0.18
Desenzano Calvina win3.54-0.16
Over 2.5 goals2.21+0.16
Under 2.5 goals1.67-0.14
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 23:58 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Novara vs Desenzano Calvina prediction
Our Novara vs Desenzano Calvina prediction and pick
Novara vs Desenzano Calvina prediction for the Serie C - Girone A on Monday, 2 November 2026: the model makes Novara marginally ahead at 42%, with the draw at 31% and Desenzano Calvina at 27%.
The goal expectancy is 2.37 in total, split 1.33 to Novara and 1.04 to Desenzano Calvina. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 42% and both teams to score 50%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Novara or draw is the main selection, rated 73%. At 1.34 with Betwinner the market prices it at 75%, against 73% from the model.
The draw is live at 31%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.
Novara average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across their last 5, Desenzano Calvina 1.2 and 1.4 across 5.
A low-scoring Novara vs Desenzano Calvina? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 69%, over 2.5 at 42%, over 3.5 at 22%; under 2.5 is 58% and under 3.5 is 79%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 58%, best priced 1.67 at Betwinner.
Both teams to score is 50%: Novara find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Desenzano Calvina in 65%. Novara keep a clean sheet 35% of the time and Desenzano Calvina 26%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.9%, then 1-0 at 12.4% and 0-1 at 9.7%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Novara, full-time Novara leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 66%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Novara vs Desenzano Calvina
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Novara vs Desenzano Calvina, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Novara to win42%2.34
Draw31%3.12
Desenzano Calvina to win27%3.54
Novara, draw no bet60%fair 1.66
Desenzano Calvina, draw no bet40%fair 2.53
Double chance
Novara or draw73%1.34
Desenzano Calvina or draw58%1.60
Novara or Desenzano Calvina (no draw)69%1.34
Goals
Over 0.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 1.5 goals69%fair 1.46
Over 2.5 goals42%2.21
Over 3.5 goals22%fair 4.65
Over 4.5 goals9%fair 10.87
Under 1.5 goals32%fair 3.17
Under 2.5 goals58%1.67
Under 3.5 goals79%fair 1.27
BTTS
Both teams to score50%1.87
Not both teams to score51%1.87
Halves
First-half goal66%fair 1.52
Over 1.5 first-half goals29%fair 3.46
Second-half goal73%fair 1.37
Team goals
Novara to score74%fair 1.36
Desenzano Calvina to score65%fair 1.55
Novara clean sheet35%fair 2.83
Desenzano Calvina clean sheet26%fair 3.79
Novara to win to nil33%fair 3.08
Desenzano Calvina to win to nil24%fair 4.12
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals50%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-112.9%
1-012.4%
0-19.7%
0-09.3%
2-18.6%
2-08.3%
Half-time / full-time
Novara / Novara25.5%
Draw / Draw17.8%
Desenzano Calvina / Desenzano Calvina16.4%
Draw / Novara15.7%
Draw / Desenzano Calvina11.3%
Questions about Novara vs Desenzano Calvina
Who will win Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
The model gives Novara the best chance at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
Novara vs Desenzano Calvina correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.9%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 42% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
The BTTS yes line is rated 50%. Novara find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Desenzano Calvina in 65%.
What time does Novara vs Desenzano Calvina kick off?
Kick-off is 19:30 UTC on Monday, 2 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.