Liga Nacional
Atlético CholomaHomeWLWWL
Thu 5 Nov
Atletico IndependienteAwayLDLDL552520
Atlético Choloma winDrawAtletico Independiente win
Atlético CholomaHomeWLWWLAtletico IndependienteAwayLDLDL- Kick-off Thu 5 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.50 1.63 : 0.87
- Favourite
- 55% Atlético Choloma
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 47% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente betting odds by bookmaker
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
55%
Our prediction
Atlético Choloma to win
1.81fair
Double chanceAtlético Choloma or draw
80% chance1.25fair
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
55% chance1.83fair
BTTSNot both teams to score
53% chance1.87fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
71% chance1.40fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
13% chance7.46fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Atlético Choloma, full-time Atlético Choloma
34% chance2.92fair
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente prediction
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente prediction and best bet
Atlético Choloma are a narrow favourite in the Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente prediction, rated 55% to win this Liga Nacional match on Thursday, 5 November 2026. Atletico Independiente sit at 20% and the draw at 25%.
The goal expectancy is 2.50 in total, split 1.63 to Atlético Choloma and 0.87 to Atletico Independiente. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 46% and both teams to score 47%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Atlético Choloma to win is the main selection, rated 55%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
For a safer line, atlético Choloma or draw covers 80% of outcomes.
Over the last 5 matches Atlético Choloma stand at 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Atletico Independiente show 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 5.
How many goals in Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
On the goal lines Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente reads 71% for over 1.5, 46% for over 2.5 and 24% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 55%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 55%.
BTTS yes stands at 47%. Atlético Choloma score in 80% of simulations against a 20% clean sheet for Atletico Independiente; Atletico Independiente score in 58% while Atlético Choloma shut them out 42% of the time.
Correct score: 1-0 leads at 13.4%, then 1-1 at 11.6% and 2-0 at 10.9%.
With the top scoreline at 13.4%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Atlético Choloma, full-time Atlético Choloma leads at 34%. A goal before the break is rated 68%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente
The grid built from 1.63 and 0.87 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Atlético Choloma to win55%fair 1.81
Draw25%fair 4.05
Atletico Independiente to win20%fair 5.00
Atlético Choloma, draw no bet73%fair 1.36
Atletico Independiente, draw no bet27%fair 3.76
Double chance
Atlético Choloma or draw80%fair 1.25
Atletico Independiente or draw45%fair 2.24
Atlético Choloma or Atletico Independiente (no draw)75%fair 1.33
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals71%fair 1.40
Over 2.5 goals46%fair 2.20
Over 3.5 goals24%fair 4.13
Over 4.5 goals11%fair 9.17
Under 1.5 goals29%fair 3.48
Under 2.5 goals55%fair 1.83
Under 3.5 goals76%fair 1.32
BTTS
Both teams to score47%fair 2.15
Not both teams to score53%fair 1.87
Halves
First-half goal68%fair 1.48
Over 1.5 first-half goals31%fair 3.23
Second-half goal75%fair 1.34
Team goals
Atlético Choloma to score80%fair 1.24
Atletico Independiente to score58%fair 1.72
Atlético Choloma clean sheet42%fair 2.39
Atletico Independiente clean sheet20%fair 5.10
Atlético Choloma to win to nil39%fair 2.60
Atletico Independiente to win to nil18%fair 5.56
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-013.4%
1-111.6%
2-010.9%
2-19.5%
0-08.2%
0-17.1%
Half-time / full-time
Atlético Choloma / Atlético Choloma34.2%
Draw / Atlético Choloma18.6%
Draw / Draw15.9%
Atletico Independiente / Atletico Independiente10.9%
Draw / Atletico Independiente8%
Questions about Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente
Who will win Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente?
The model gives Atlético Choloma the best chance at 55%, with the draw at 25%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13.4%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 46%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente?
The BTTS yes line is rated 47%. Atlético Choloma find the net in 80% of simulated matches and Atletico Independiente in 58%.
When do Atlético Choloma play Atletico Independiente?
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente starts at 23:15 UTC on Thursday, 5 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.