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Live 25 UTC
FA Trophy 1/128-finals Saturday, 24 October 2026 Pens
Erith TownHomeDD
3:3Half-time 1:1Penalties 0:0
Burgess Hill TownAwayLWD
402238
Erith Town winDrawBurgess Hill Town win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct
Expected goals
3.52
1.78 : 1.74
Favourite
40%
Erith Town
Over 2.5 goals
68%
model chance
Both teams to score
68%
model chance
Prices compared
-
awaiting lines

Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town odds comparison

No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.

Bookmakers have not opened Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town yet. The lines usually arrive within two days of kick-off, and the markets above show the fair price from the model until then.

78%

Our prediction

Erith Town or Burgess Hill Town (no draw)
StrongExpected goals 1.78 : 1.74
1.29fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
68% chance1.47fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
68% chance1.46fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
87% chance1.15fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
9% chance10.87fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Erith Town, full-time Erith Town
24% chance4.13fair
First halfFirst-half goal
80% chance1.26fair

Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town prediction

Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town prediction, who wins and at what price

Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town prediction for the FA Trophy on Saturday, 24 October 2026: the model calls it close, Erith Town 40%, draw 22%, Burgess Hill Town 38%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.

The goal expectancy is 3.52 in total, split 1.78 to Erith Town and 1.74 to Burgess Hill Town. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 68% and both teams to score 68%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Erith Town or Burgess Hill Town (no draw) is the main selection, rated 78%. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.

Goals forecast for Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Under 2.5 goals is rated 32% and under 3.5 53%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 87% and over 2.5 at 68%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 68%.

Both teams to score is 68%: Erith Town find the net in 83% of simulated matches and Burgess Hill Town in 82%. Erith Town keep a clean sheet 18% of the time and Burgess Hill Town 17%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 68%.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 9.2%, then 2-1 at 8.2% and 1-2 at 8%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Erith Town, full-time Erith Town leads at 24%. A goal before the break is rated 80%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.

Every market for Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town

Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.

Match result

Erith Town to win40%fair 2.52
Draw22%fair 4.48
Burgess Hill Town to win38%fair 2.62
Erith Town, draw no bet51%fair 1.96
Burgess Hill Town, draw no bet49%fair 2.04

Double chance

Erith Town or draw62%fair 1.61
Burgess Hill Town or draw60%fair 1.66
Erith Town or Burgess Hill Town (no draw)78%fair 1.29

Goals

Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals87%fair 1.15
Over 2.5 goals68%fair 1.47
Over 3.5 goals47%fair 2.14
Over 4.5 goals28%fair 3.60
Under 1.5 goals13%fair 7.46
Under 2.5 goals32%fair 3.13
Under 3.5 goals53%fair 1.88

BTTS

Both teams to score68%fair 1.46
Not both teams to score32%fair 3.15

Halves

First-half goal80%fair 1.26
Over 1.5 first-half goals47%fair 2.13
Second-half goal86%fair 1.17

Team goals

Erith Town to score83%fair 1.20
Burgess Hill Town to score82%fair 1.21
Erith Town clean sheet18%fair 5.68
Burgess Hill Town clean sheet17%fair 5.92
Erith Town to win to nil16%fair 6.21
Burgess Hill Town to win to nil16%fair 6.45

Odd or even

Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00

Most likely scores

1-19.2%
2-18.2%
1-28%
2-27.1%
1-05.3%
0-15.2%

Half-time / full-time

Erith Town / Erith Town24.2%
Burgess Hill Town / Burgess Hill Town23.1%
Draw / Erith Town12.4%
Draw / Burgess Hill Town12%
Draw / Draw11.2%

Questions about Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town

Who is favourite in Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model gives Erith Town the best chance at 40%, with the draw at 22%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.

What is the correct score prediction for Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town?

1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 68%) are the steadier way to back the same view.

Is BTTS likely in Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town?

The BTTS yes line is rated 68%. Erith Town find the net in 83% of simulated matches and Burgess Hill Town in 82%.

When do Erith Town play Burgess Hill Town?

Kick-off is 14:00 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.

Our pick, Erith Town v Burgess Hill TownErith Town or Burgess Hill Town (no draw), 78%
1.29fair