EFL Trophy
AFC WimbledonHomeLLDLL
1:2Half-time 0:0
Arsenal U21AwayW641917
AFC Wimbledon winDrawArsenal U21 win
AFC WimbledonHomeLLDLLArsenal U21AwayW- Kick-off Tue 27 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.59 2.41 : 1.18
- Favourite
- 64% AFC Wimbledon
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 64% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.50 | 5.21 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.48 | 2.45 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
AFC Wimbledon to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 prediction: AFC Wimbledon 1.46 (1xBet), draw 4.50 (1xBet), Arsenal U21 5.21 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 91%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.36 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.70 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.48 (1xBet) and no 2.45 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
64%
Our prediction
AFC Wimbledon to win
Double chanceAFC Wimbledon or draw
83% chance1.10
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
69% chance1.36
BTTSBoth teams to score
64% chance1.48
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
87% chance1.15fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
10% chance10.53fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time AFC Wimbledon, full-time AFC Wimbledon
43% chance2.33fair
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 odds movement
AFC Wimbledon win1.46-0.07
Draw4.50-0.30
Arsenal U21 win5.21-0.04
Over 2.5 goals1.36-0.06
Under 2.5 goals2.70-0.18
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 prediction
Our AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 prediction and pick
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 prediction for the EFL Trophy on Tuesday, 27 October 2026: the model makes AFC Wimbledon the clear favourite at 64%, with the draw at 19% and Arsenal U21 at 17%.
Expected goals are 2.41 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.18 for Arsenal U21, a total of 3.59, which puts over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 64%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
AFC Wimbledon to win is the main selection, rated 64%. The best price in our comparison is 1.46 at 1xBet, which implies 68%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21.
AFC Wimbledon or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 83% chance, priced 1.10.
With the draw down at 19%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Under 2.5 goals is rated 31% and under 3.5 52%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 87% and over 2.5 at 69%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 69%, best priced 1.36 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 64%, built from AFC Wimbledon scoring in 91% of runs and Arsenal U21 in 69%; clean sheets come at 31% for AFC Wimbledon and 9% for Arsenal U21.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 64%.
Correct score: 2-1 leads at 9.5%, then 2-0 at 8% and 1-1 at 7.8%.
With the top scoreline at 9.5%, correct score stays a long-odds market for AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time AFC Wimbledon, full-time AFC Wimbledon leads at 43%. A goal before the break is rated 80%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
AFC Wimbledon to win64%1.46
Draw19%4.50
Arsenal U21 to win17%5.21
AFC Wimbledon, draw no bet79%fair 1.26
Arsenal U21, draw no bet21%fair 4.78
Double chance
AFC Wimbledon or draw83%1.10
Arsenal U21 or draw36%2.41
AFC Wimbledon or Arsenal U21 (no draw)81%1.14
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals87%fair 1.15
Over 2.5 goals69%1.36
Over 3.5 goals48%fair 2.07
Over 4.5 goals29%fair 3.44
Under 1.5 goals13%fair 7.87
Under 2.5 goals31%2.70
Under 3.5 goals52%fair 1.93
BTTS
Both teams to score64%1.48
Not both teams to score36%2.45
Halves
First-half goal80%fair 1.25
Over 1.5 first-half goals48%fair 2.08
Second-half goal86%fair 1.16
Team goals
AFC Wimbledon to score91%fair 1.10
Arsenal U21 to score69%fair 1.44
AFC Wimbledon clean sheet31%fair 3.26
Arsenal U21 clean sheet9%fair 11.11
AFC Wimbledon to win to nil28%fair 3.53
Arsenal U21 to win to nil8%fair 12.05
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19.5%
2-08%
1-17.8%
3-17.6%
1-06.7%
3-06.4%
Half-time / full-time
AFC Wimbledon / AFC Wimbledon43%
Draw / AFC Wimbledon17.5%
Arsenal U21 / Arsenal U219.6%
Draw / Draw9.5%
Draw / Arsenal U216%
Questions about AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21
Who is favourite in AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21?
The model gives AFC Wimbledon the best chance at 64%, with the draw at 19%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 correct score: what does the model say?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.5%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 69% backs the same picture with less variance.
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 64%. AFC Wimbledon find the net in 91% of simulated matches and Arsenal U21 in 69%.
When do AFC Wimbledon play Arsenal U21?
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 starts at 18:00 UTC on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.