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Premyer Liqa Round 11 Saturday, 7 November 2026 Kick-off
Safa BakuHomeLLLL
Sat 7 Nov
ArazAwayLLLLD
432532
Safa Baku winDrawAraz win
Kick-off
Sat 7 Nov
Expected goals
2.85
1.54 : 1.31
Favourite
43%
Safa Baku
Over 2.5 goals
54%
model chance
Both teams to score
57%
model chance
Prices compared
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awaiting lines

Safa Baku vs Araz betting odds by bookmaker

No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.

No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.

75%

Our prediction

Safa Baku or Araz (no draw)
LeanExpected goals 1.54 : 1.31
1.33fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
54% chance1.85fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
57% chance1.75fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
78% chance1.29fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.55fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Safa Baku, full-time Safa Baku
26% chance3.89fair
First halfFirst-half goal
72% chance1.38fair

Safa Baku vs Araz prediction

Our Safa Baku vs Araz prediction and pick

The Safa Baku vs Araz prediction leans to Safa Baku: 43% against 32% for Araz, with 25% left for the draw, in the Premyer Liqa on Saturday, 7 November 2026.

The goal expectancy is 2.85 in total, split 1.54 to Safa Baku and 1.31 to Araz. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 54% and both teams to score 57%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Safa Baku or Araz (no draw) is the main selection, rated 75%. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.

Over the last 4 matches Safa Baku stand at 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Araz show 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats in 5.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Safa Baku vs Araz

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 78%, over 2.5 at 54%, over 3.5 at 32%; under 2.5 is 46% and under 3.5 is 68%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 54%.

BTTS yes stands at 57%. Safa Baku score in 79% of simulations against a 21% clean sheet for Araz; Araz score in 73% while Safa Baku shut them out 27% of the time.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 11.7%, then 2-1 at 9% and 1-0 at 8.9%.

With the top scoreline at 11.7%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Safa Baku vs Araz; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Safa Baku, full-time Safa Baku leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 72%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.

Every market rated for Safa Baku vs Araz

Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Safa Baku vs Araz, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.

Match result

Safa Baku to win43%fair 2.34
Draw25%fair 4.02
Araz to win32%fair 3.10
Safa Baku, draw no bet57%fair 1.75
Araz, draw no bet43%fair 2.33

Double chance

Safa Baku or draw68%fair 1.48
Araz or draw57%fair 1.75
Safa Baku or Araz (no draw)75%fair 1.33

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals78%fair 1.29
Over 2.5 goals54%fair 1.85
Over 3.5 goals32%fair 3.13
Over 4.5 goals16%fair 6.25
Under 1.5 goals22%fair 4.48
Under 2.5 goals46%fair 2.18
Under 3.5 goals68%fair 1.47

BTTS

Both teams to score57%fair 1.75
Not both teams to score43%fair 2.34

Halves

First-half goal72%fair 1.38
Over 1.5 first-half goals37%fair 2.72
Second-half goal79%fair 1.26

Team goals

Safa Baku to score79%fair 1.27
Araz to score73%fair 1.37
Safa Baku clean sheet27%fair 3.70
Araz clean sheet21%fair 4.67
Safa Baku to win to nil25%fair 4.03
Araz to win to nil20%fair 5.08

Odd or even

Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99

Most likely scores

1-111.7%
2-19%
1-08.9%
1-27.6%
0-17.6%
2-06.9%

Half-time / full-time

Safa Baku / Safa Baku25.7%
Araz / Araz18.8%
Draw / Safa Baku14.4%
Draw / Draw14.4%
Draw / Araz11.5%

Questions about Safa Baku vs Araz

Safa Baku or Araz: which side does the model back?

The model gives Safa Baku the best chance at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.

Safa Baku vs Araz correct score: what does the model say?

1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.7%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 54% backs the same picture with less variance.

Safa Baku vs Araz both teams to score: yes or no?

The BTTS yes line is rated 57%. Safa Baku find the net in 79% of simulated matches and Araz in 73%.

When do Safa Baku play Araz?

Kick-off is 12:00 UTC on Saturday, 7 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.

Our pick, Safa Baku v ArazSafa Baku or Araz (no draw), 75%
1.33fair